Five facts you need to know to understand why this final is so challenging for Sabalenka

For World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, the US Open final is more than just a third major championship match of the 2025 season. It’s the match that will define her year and solidify her status. Or not. After an extraordinary year marked by 55 wins and three trophies (Brisbane, Miami, Madrid), she stands on the precipice of validation, but standing in her way is Amanda Anisimova, a player who has a history of causing her problems and who has shown an impressive level of play in the quarter-finals and semi-finals. This final is a complex and challenging affair for the World No. 1, as six crucial factors show just how much is on the line for Sabalenka in this high-stakes showdown.

Fact 1: Can she be world nO. 1 and not win a slam in 2025?

Despite her remarkable consistency and status as World No. 1, Aryna Sabalenka enters the US Open final without a Grand Slam title to her name in 2025. This season alone, she has reached the finals of the Australian Open (losing to Madison Keys) and Roland-Garros (losing to Coco Gauff), only to fall just short of the title. Having lost so many finals due to nerves, including the 2023 US Open against Gauff, Sabalenka needs to reassure herself of her ability to win a major final. A victory in New York would likely erase any doubt about this core champion ability and put her career back on its expected trajectory, but another defeat would leave a significant void. It would be the tenth time since 1995 in women’s tennis. The last time was Simona Halep in 2017.

Fact 2: Anisimova is the best among the two

Amanda Anisimova is ranked world number 9 (and she’s a future number 4), but when it comes to her rivalry with Sabalenka, she has the upper hand. That’s what the head-to-head record shows. The American has a game that consistently neutralizes Sabalenka’s power and disrupts her rhythm. Anisimova leads 6–3 overall, 2–1 on hard courts, and 3–2 in majors. She won their most recent encounter at Wimbledon (6–4, 4–6, 6–4). Sabalenka might think back to her victory over Anisimova at Roland-Garros earlier this year (7–5, 6–3), but the conditions there were completely different.

Fact 3: Anisimova’s Redemption Run

Anisimova’s journey to the final has been a story of redemption. Her stunning upset over Iga Swiatek was a defining moment. Facing the world No. 2, who had demolished her in a dramatic Wimbledon final (6–0, 6–0), Anisimova returned with fierce determination, ultimately prevailing 6–4, 7–6. She had promised to come back stronger — and that’s exactly what she’s showing now.

Fact 4: Losing Three Major Finals in One Year Is Rare

Sabalenka is the first woman since Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber in 2016 to reach three Grand Slam finals in a single season. However, both Serena and Kerber captured titles that year — Kerber won the Australian Open and the US Open, while Serena claimed the Wimbledon crown.

Only five women in history have reached three Grand Slam finals in one year without winning any, the most recent being Venus Williams in 2002. The last player to lose three major finals in a season to three different opponents was Nancy Richey in 1966 — although she couldn’t compete in one of those finals due to injury.

Fact 5: Not Reliving the Keys Experience, at all cost

Amanda Anisimova would become the lowest-ranked US Open champion since Emma Raducanu’s unforgettable run in 2021. That wouldn’t be a shameful loss — but for Sabalenka, this 2025 season has already featured setbacks at levels she’s not accustomed to. Losing another final, this time to the No. 8 seed, would feel reminiscent of the season-opening defeat to Madison Keys.

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