Can Carlos Alcaraz surpass Novak Djokovic?

When Carlos Alcaraz first burst onto the tennis scene, the comparisons between the greats of the sport were obvious. For some, his physicality and nationality meant obvious comparisons to his compatriot and all-time great Rafa Nadal. 

Others believed his physicality, athleticism, and shot selection were more reminiscent of an Agassi or a Djokovic, but given his age when he won his first couple of Grand Slams, those who believed he had the potential to surpass, or at least rank his name next to the Big Three, felt vindicated in their opinions. 

When Carlos Alcaraz first burst onto the tennis scene, the comparisons between the greats of the sport were obvious. For some, his physicality and nationality meant obvious comparisons to his compatriot and all-time great Rafa Nadal. 

Others believed his physicality, athleticism, and shot selection were more reminiscent of an Agassi or a Djokovic, but given his age when he won his first couple of Grand Slams, those who believed he had the potential to surpass, or at least rank his name next to the Big Three, felt vindicated in their opinions. 

Current Form & Trajectory

While Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic had one of the greatest sporting rivalries of all time, each had a window at their peak, which helped catapult them into the pantheon of greats. 

Federer’s dominance in the early stages of his career is what set him streets ahead of the competition. His only Achilles Heel was the French Open, when his great rival and the King of Clay, Rafa Nadal, asserted his dominance and ended his career as the undoubtedly greatest clay-court player to have ever played the game.

Taking a look at the betting odds, Alcaraz is not exhibiting the same level of dominance that we saw in the early days of his career. The rise of Jannik Sinner, who beat Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final this year, Alexander Zverev, and the persistence of a 38-year-old Djokovic are all causing problems for Alcaraz as he attempts to push his Grand Slam total into double figures. 

The betting companies have Sinner as a marginal favourite going into the Aussie Open, too. As we know, though, these betting markets can change rapidly; they have other factors to consider. Many of these platforms expand their market into other forms of betting, whether through contemporary payment options like cryptocurrency or the more traditional avenues of casino gaming. 

We’ve seen how online casino real money gaming options operate, but unlike casino gaming, outright Grand Slam markets depend on injuries, form, and the player’s past performance on that specific surface, so there are other considerations, Alcaraz will be going into the Australian Open looking to make it three in a row though, so he doesn’t need any further inspiration to defy the gambling companies. 

Star Power

Not only did The Big Three create their own mini-league at the top of tennis, but they also helped to inject a new lease of life into the sport. All three were among the most recognizable sports stars in the world, with their faces plastered on products, merchandise, and multi-million-dollar endorsements. 

We’ve seen how themed games can attract an audience at a specific time of year, as you can see in the link below, but when it comes to tennis-themed games, designers want to know they’ll get a return on their investment. In the days of Federer and Nadal, this was an almost iron-clad guarantee. While it is not to say Carlos does not have the star power, he is still a few Grand Slams away from being able to command a casual audience in the same manner. 

Often, great players benefit from having other icons around them, bringing out the best in them. While there are some excellent modern-day players, they do not generate the same star power or audience response as The Big Three. It might be an unfair comparison, but if Carlos is to surpass Novak, he needs to at least be on par in this area. 

Longevity & Consistency

It is not talent that stops the best players from reaching ATG status; it is often problems off the court that can culminate in spells on the sidelines and loss of form. Djokovic’s incredible longevity in the sport and his conditioning have allowed him to remain at the top for the best part of 20 years. As sports science continues to have a more profound impact on the elite level of the sport, this sort of dominance will be harder to replicate.

Despite being 23, Carlos has spoken of experiencing physical and mental fatigue; he has also taken a sharp turn in a new direction, and Alcaraz has parted ways with his long-time coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero. The tour takes a relentless toll on the bodies and minds of top professionals, so it is no surprise that he is feeling it and looking for a new approach off the court. 

If he continues to have muscular issues and suffers from fatigue, this could be why we see him finish his career with 12-15 Grand Slams, rather than the two dozen we have seen Djokovic win. He could easily add another before his time at the top is over. He already beat Alcaraz in the Olympic final in 2024, one of his most outstanding career achievements, so any comparison between the two, at least for now, is premature. 

Looking To The Future

If Carlos can channel the same form and consistency he managed throughout 2025, then the Grand Slams could quickly mount up. However, his competition is becoming more resilient, and the fact that he is already exhibiting signs of fatigue and physical injury at 23 does not bode well for a sport where these issues can compound. 

Alcaraz will have a legendary career. He could retire today and be considered a legend. However, we’d say he is unlikely to find himself next to The Big Three when all is said and done.