Surviving the clay: who are the real contenders at Roland Garros 2026?

In the first week, there were no games involving the circuit’s top players, but we saw some surprising outcomes. What stood out was the volatility of the matches, especially the ones where players who took part in Rome’s Masters 1000 were involved. These players, probably, are still fatigued after the clash in Italy.

This is something bettors are keeping a strict eye on. As the opening phases of the 2026 Roland Garros unfold, market dynamics are shifting with every match; the most analytical fans rely on real-time data by choosing to compare the odds on oddschecker.com to better understand how the market changes from match to match.

What has happened so far

Officially, the Roland Garros started on Sunday, May 24. The previous week, though, players who still need to qualify play to put their name on the main table. We have already concluded that phase. At the end of the qualifiers, we saw some nice playing by two of the home-grown athletes: the Frenchmen Herbert and Jacquet. Luka Pavlovic, another French athlete, was convincing enough, so the local supporters may put their hopes on one of them, if they are positive that some surprises may come their way, in Paris.

A player who showed good rhythm and decisions is a female athlete from Spain, Marina Bassols Ribera. She has a terrible win/loss record in her career, but seems focused and determined enough on the French clay. Should we name a possible dark horse in the women’s division, we may play our cards on her to have a good run. She doesn’t seem capable of going all the way, but a good streak of wins appears possible during the week.

Who are the top contenders

 In a tournament as important as a Slam, there are several factors to consider: the shape of the players is obviously the first one, and we have already written down how much that matters only a matter of days after a fatiguing bout like the Italian Masters. But there are other important variables. Such as the inclement weather. Even if Paris is a Northern city in Europe, the Garros have already suffered the early-summer sun in previous editions. The heat level may be very high in the early sessions, and players hope to be called to play during night sessions. In the last few years, we have seen some stars asking for water and calling timeouts during the summer tournament window. This may very well be the case also in Paris.

Whatever the case, though, there are a couple of players who are the absolute favourites to win: Jannik Sinner and, maybe surprisingly but not that much, Novak Djokovic. The clay is typically the realm of the Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz, but he’s injured and won’t play in France. The Italian, who is the number 1 in the ranking, has the upper hand and is very motivated, since he has never won the Roland Garros. Djokovic, despite his age, has experience to sell and could make wise use of that to win out until the final stages. Once there, he can bring to the table something nobody else has: almost 20 years of knowledge of the sport at its highest levels.

We could easily expect the trophy to be handed to the Sabalenkas, Rybakinas, or Swiateks of the world.

Possible dark horses to watch out for

Among the males, we don’t have only Sinner and Nole. Ignacio Buse from Peru has added a winning edge to his already aggressive tennis. He took down Jakub Menšík and Flavio Cobolli, two fancied young talents, on his way to the Hamburg title, on the back of comfortably beating home Lorenzo Sonego, one of the home favourites, at the Italian Open. Before that, in Madrid, he took down the highly rated Arthur Fils in three tight sets. Earlier in the year, he also beat João Fonseca and Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini, both at the Rio de Janeiro Open. Quietly, Buse is putting together all the pieces needed to be a champ.

Among the women players, we could easily expect the trophy to be handed to the Sabalenkas, Rybakinas, or Swiateks of the world.

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