Race to Turin, daily: Jodar wins, Cobolli pulls out and five contenders play to survive

Ninth seed Rafael Jodar of Spain beat Chile’s Alejandro Tabilo 6-2, 6-3 in his opening match at the Rolex Paris Masters on Monday to move 64 points clear in ninth place, the last one that leads to the Nitto ATP Finals (Nov. 15-22). A few hours later, fifth seed Flavio Cobolli of Italy withdrew from the tournament, leaving him on 3,690 points with no way to add to them.

Tuesday is decisive for the men further down. Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul, Jiri Lehecka and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina all play their first match, and a defeat would end the bid of any of them. Jodar faces Casper Ruud in the night session.

Four players are already qualified: Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Ben Shelton and Daniil Medvedev. With Jannik Sinner out for the rest of the season, ninth place is the last place in. After Monday’s matches, Cobolli (3,690 points), Arthur Fils (3,535), Frances Tiafoe (3,390) and Jodar (3,234) hold the four remaining places, with Alex de Minaur 10th on 3,170.

Cobolli’s place in Turin now in the others’ hands

Cobolli, who retired in tears against Matteo Berrettini in Vienna last Thursday, trailing 5-2 in the first set, was the best placed of the contenders. A run to the quarter-finals would have guaranteed his first qualification, in his home country.

He will now miss Turin only if four players pass him this week. Fils would overtake him by reaching the quarter-finals (3,725 points), Tiafoe the semi-finals (3,780), Jodar and de Minaur the final (3,834 and 3,810), and Djokovic, Fritz and Paul the title.

His withdrawal also lowers the bar for the two men just behind him. Fils now needs the quarter-finals to make sure of his place, rather than the semi-finals, and Tiafoe the semi-finals, rather than the final.

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Jodar, who entered the top 10 on Monday, hit 24 winners against Tabilo. His next opponent, Ruud, beat Argentine qualifier Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-3, 6-2 on Monday without facing a break point.

A win over Ruud would take Jodar to 3,284 points, more than de Minaur can reach with his first win (3,260). De Minaur, who had a first-round bye and faces Andrey Rublev or Tomas Martin Etcheverry, would then need the quarter-finals to pass him.

Cobolli’s withdrawal has also changed Jodar’s section. Instead of the Italian, he would meet lucky loser Thiago Agustin Tirante, Jan-Lennard Struff or French wildcard Arthur Gea in the third round, for a place in the quarter-finals.

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Five contenders face elimination on Tuesday in Paris

Djokovic, Fritz, Paul, Lehecka and Davidovich Fokina cannot afford to lose on Tuesday. A first-match defeat would leave each of them on 2,900 points or fewer, below Jodar’s current total, with Cobolli, Fils and Tiafoe also out of reach.

Tuesday’s order of play puts Davidovich Fokina second on Court Central, against French wildcard Moise Kouame, the Brest champion. Djokovic follows against Valentin Vacherot, who beat Lehecka 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 in the Basel final on Sunday.

On Court 1, Paul faces Holger Rune, the 2022 champion, before Fritz plays qualifier Benjamin Bonzi, not before 3:30 pm. Lehecka meets Alex Michelsen on Court 2, not before 3 pm.

Djokovic needs at least the semi-finals to stay in contention, and only the title would make sure of his place. Fritz is in the same position, but would need the final if Jodar beats Ruud. Paul needs at least the final, while Lehecka and Davidovich Fokina can only hope with the title, and even that would depend on the others’ results.

Fils, Tiafoe and de Minaur, who all had first-round byes, are not on Tuesday’s schedule. Fils will face qualifier Tomas Machac, and Tiafoe the winner of Tuesday’s match between Quentin Halys and Arthur Fery.

The draw has put three pairs of contenders in the same section, with a possible meeting in the third round: Djokovic against de Minaur, Paul against Tiafoe and Fritz against Fils. Djokovic, Paul and Fritz need two wins to get there, de Minaur, Tiafoe and Fils one. Jodar and de Minaur are in opposite halves and can only meet in the final.