Why Cobolli could afford to skip Paris, with a 99.8 percent chance of Turin
Flavio Cobolli pulled out of the Rolex Paris Masters with a left leg injury picked up in Vienna, 13 days before his home ATP Finals. Only one combination of results can now keep the fifth seed out of Turin, and Casper Ruud can rule it out on Tuesday night.
Flavio Cobolli, 2026 | © Gepa / PsNewz
Flavio Cobolli was right to withdraw from the Rolex Paris Masters on Monday, 13 days before the start of the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin. He had a few reasons to play. The fifth seed had exactly a 0.2 percent reason to play: that is the share of 600,000 Tennis Majors simulations of the rest of the Paris Masters 1000 in which he misses out on Turin. In only 0.2 percent of the cases, Cobolli would have happened not to be in a good position to qualify.
Cobolli arrived in Paris with a left leg injury. Playing could only have earned him points he almost certainly does not need, at the risk of reaching his home event less than fit. Staying out froze his total, and only four rivals passing him this week can now push him out of the qualifying places.
Here is what the maths say about the Italian’s path to Turin.
A muscle strain picked up in Vienna
Cobolli retired in tears in the second round in Vienna last Thursday, trailing his compatriot Matteo Berrettini 5-2 in the first set after 41 minutes. He said afterwards that his tears came from emotion rather than pain.
The next day, he wrote on his Instagram story that scans had shown a minor muscle strain, and that he would do everything he could to play in Paris. On Monday, after the tournament announced his withdrawal, he said he still felt some discomfort and did not want to take any risks. Why would he?
Only one combination can keep Cobolli out of Turin
With Jannik Sinner out for the rest of the season, ninth place in the Race is the last place in, and four players have already qualified. The draw leaves only one way for four contenders to pass Cobolli this week.
Sixth seed Arthur Fils of France must reach the quarter-finals, which would take him to 3,725 points. Seventh seed Frances Tiafoe of the United States must reach the semi-finals (3,780).
Ninth seed Rafael Jodar of Spain must reach the final (3,834). The fourth must be eighth seed Alex de Minaur of Australia reaching the final (3,810), or 10th seed Novak Djokovic of Serbia winning the title (3,890).
The only scenario that keeps Cobolli out of Turin
All four results must happen in Paris this week. Cobolli stays on 3,680 points (orange line).
Grey: Race to Turin points before Tuesday’s matches. Green: points needed to pass Cobolli. Scale from 2,800 to 4,000 points. Source: ATP media notes. The scenario occurred in 0.2 percent of 600,000 Tennis Majors simulations.
Every other combination fails because the contenders block each other. Fils shares a section with 11th seed Taylor Fritz, Tiafoe with 12th seed Tommy Paul, and de Minaur with Djokovic. Each half of the draw can produce only one finalist.
Those four results, all in the same week, are the 0.2 percent. The real fight is elsewhere: Jodar (47.5 percent) and de Minaur (37.8 percent) are contesting what is most likely the last place, with Djokovic (15.5 percent) the main outsider.
Ruud can settle it on Tuesday night
According to the ATP media notes, Cobolli will be sure of his place if Casper Ruud of Norway beats Jodar in the second round tonight. In the simulations, Cobolli qualified every time Jodar lost that match.
The model rates each player on the average of his overall and hard-court Elo ratings, published by Tennis Abstract, and plays out the remaining matches of the real draw. It was run before Tuesday’s matches and does not account for form or fitness.
Ruud, who never faced a break point against Juan Manuel Cerundolo on Monday, meets Jodar in Tuesday’s night session. A win for the Norwegian would send Cobolli to Turin without him hitting another ball.
