Race to Turin, daily: Jodar’s must-win start opens the Paris decider, with Djokovic facing Basel champion Vacherot

Rafael Jodar cannot afford a slip. The 20-year-old Spaniard opens the Rolex Paris Masters against Alejandro Tabilo on Monday, second match on the Court Central, and a defeat would end his bid for the Nitto ATP Finals (Nov. 15-22). Paris, the last tournament of the race, will decide the final four places in Turin, and 10 men can still claim them.

Novak Djokovic is one of them. The Serbian starts against Valentin Vacherot, who won the Basel title on Sunday, and he needs a deep run: only a semifinal would keep him in contention, and only the title would make sure of his place.

Four players are already in: Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Ben Shelton and Daniil Medvedev. Jannik Sinner, second in the PIF ATP Live Race to Turin, is out for the rest of the season, so ninth place is the last place in. The four remaining places are held this morning by Flavio Cobolli (3,690 points), Arthur Fils (3,535), Frances Tiafoe (3,430) and Alex de Minaur (3,210). Jodar is 10th, one point behind de Minaur.

Jodar has no margin

Jodar is the only contender whose week can end in his first match. If he loses to Tabilo, he is out of the race: the four men above him already have more than his 3,209 points, and none of them can lose any. A win would take him to 3,234 points, 24 ahead of de Minaur, who has a first-round bye.

You might also like this

Rolex Paris Masters order of play, Monday: Jodar, six qualifiers and four French players open the main draw

tennis majors

‘No such thing as No. 1 by default’: Rolex Paris Masters director hails Zverev before Paris ceremony

tennis majors

Machac on course for Fils, an all-Italian qualifiers’ clash: where the Paris Masters qualifiers landed

tennis majors

Djokovic needs the semifinals at least

Djokovic is 11th with 2,900 points. Reaching the quarterfinals would take him to 3,090, still short of de Minaur’s current total, so the semifinals (3,290) are the minimum to stay alive. The title would take him to 3,890 and guarantee his place. Taylor Fritz, who opens against qualifier Benjamin Bonzi, is in the same situation: 3,285 with the semifinals, 3,885 with the title.

What each contender needs

Cobolli is the best placed. A run to the quarterfinals would make sure of his place, whatever happens elsewhere. Fils would need the semifinals, while Tiafoe, de Minaur and Jodar would need to reach the final to be certain of Turin. Djokovic, Fritz and Tommy Paul can only make sure of a place by winning the title.

Further down, the chances are slimmer. Paul needs at least the final to stay in contention. Jiri Lehecka, beaten by Vacherot in the Basel final, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who faces Brest champion Moise Kouame, can only hope with the title, and even that would not be enough on its own: it would depend on the others’ results.

Four possible duels in the third round

The draw has put four pairs of contenders in the same section, with a possible meeting in the third round: Djokovic against de Minaur, Paul against Tiafoe, Jodar against Cobolli and Fritz against Fils, a rematch of last week’s Basel quarterfinal. Djokovic, Paul, Jodar and Fritz would need two wins to get there, de Minaur, Tiafoe, Cobolli and Fils one. De Minaur and Jodar, separated by one point, are in opposite halves and can only meet in the final.

Sources: PIF ATP Live Race to Turin (live ranking, Monday morning); Rolex Paris Masters main draw and order of play, Monday, Nov. 2; 2026 ATP Rulebook (4.01, 9.03). Scenarios calculated from the live Race’s points for each round and the Paris draw.