Sinner out, Alcaraz withdraws: the road is wide open in Shanghai

This week, neither of the ATP Tour’s two dominant forces will be adding another trophy to their collection. Fresh off his title in Tokyo, Carlos Alcaraz withdrew from the Shanghai Masters 1000 citing fatigue and a minor injury. Jannik Sinner, who lifted the trophy in Beijing just days ago, retired mid-match on Sunday after suffering cramps during his third-round encounter with Tallon Griekspoor.

With the two best players in the world out of the picture, and a combined 11 titles between them this season (eight for Alcaraz, three for Sinner), the draw in Shanghai suddenly looks wide open. One thing is certain: on Sunday, we’ll have a new Masters 1000 champion in 2025. The previous winners this year, Jack Draper (Indian Wells), Jakub Mensik (Miami), Carlos Alcaraz (Monte Carlo, Rome, Cincinnati), Casper Ruud (Madrid) and Ben Shelton (Toronto), are all absent or out from the Chinese event.

So, who will seize the opportunity to claim the penultimate Masters 1000 title of the season? All eyes naturally turn to the two veterans most accustomed to these deep runs: Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev.

But others could crash the party, players like Alex de Minaur, Holger Rune or even Lorenzo Musetti. Shanghai could also deliver a genuine shock, with the likes of Tallon Griekspoor, Zizou Bergs, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Valentin Vacherot still alive in the draw.

The Djokovic certainty, the Medvedev question

Looking at the list of remaining contenders, one name inevitably stands out: Novak Djokovic. The Serbian, clear favorite according to most bookmakers, with a staggering 40 Masters 1000 titles to his name, including four in Shanghai. By comparison, Daniil Medvedev, the next most successful active player left in the draw, has six.

Djokovic has also been remarkably consistent at the Slams this year, reaching all four semi-finals, behind only Sinner and Alcaraz in overall performance. Already through to the round of 16, the world No. 1 has a favorable path toward the semis. He’ll face Spain’s Jaume Munar on Tuesday before potentially meeting Gabriel Diallo or Zizou Bergs, with Holger Rune looming as a possible semi-final opponent.

The only cloud over Djokovic’s campaign is that he hasn’t lifted a Masters 1000 trophy since Paris-Bercy in 2023. This year, he holds a modest 7–4 record in the category, with his best showing a runner-up finish in Miami, where he lost to Czech teenager Jakub Mensik. Still, Shanghai has been a happy hunting ground, the Masters 1000 where Djokovic owns his highest win percentage (87%).

On the other half of the draw, Daniil Medvedev stands out as the most seasoned player left. The Russian has played in 10 Masters 1000 finals and owns six titles, including the 2019 Shanghai crown, his lone triumph at the Chinese event. On paper, he’s favored to reach another final, but his recent struggles and coaching changes could open the door for others.

Medvedev recently split from long-time coach Gilles Cervara and has reached only one final this year, in Halle, where he lost to Alexander Bublik. His best Masters 1000 result of 2025 so far is a semi-final in Indian Wells. Lacking confidence, the world No. 5 has a golden chance to turn his season around in Shanghai.

Rune, De Minaur, Auger-Aliassime, Musetti — golden opportunity

Even without facing Alcaraz or Sinner, winning the Shanghai Masters would still represent a monumental achievement, and a prestigious addition to any résumé. For several players, this week offers a golden chance to shine on one of tennis’s biggest stages.

Holger Rune, who captured his lone Masters 1000 title in Paris in 2022, has since reached only three finals in the category, in Monte Carlo and Rome (2023), and Indian Wells earlier this year. The Dane has struggled for consistency at the top level, but a Shanghai breakthrough could be the spark he needs heading into the indoor season.

Four other Top 20 players are still chasing their first Masters 1000 crown: Alex de Minaur, Félix Auger-Aliassime, Lorenzo Musetti and Jiri Lehecka. All are in the top half of the draw, meaning only one can make the final. De Minaur (Toronto 2023), Auger-Aliassime (Madrid 2024) and Musetti (Monte Carlo 2025) have each been runners-up before and will be eager to go one step further this time.

A major upset in the making?

The last player ranked outside the Top 20 to win a Masters 1000 was Alexei Popyrin (No. 62) in Montreal in 2024. Shanghai could very well produce another shock, with nine unseeded players reaching the round of 16 and dreaming of a career-defining run in China.

The lowest-ranked among them, Valentin Vacherot, came through qualifying. The world No. 204 from Monaco stunned Alexander Bublik in the second round before advancing past Tomas Machac via retirement. It’s the first Masters 1000 round of 16 of his career, a fairytale run already.

Eight others are also eyeing the biggest title of their lives: Tallon Griekspoor, Gabriel Diallo, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Zizou Bergs, Jaume Munar, Arthur Rinderknech, Nuno Borges and Learner Tien.

In a tournament that lost both Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev before the round of 16, and where humid conditions are testing players’ endurance (Djokovic reportedly vomited twice during his third-round match), everything remains possible.