With Sinner and Alcaraz increasingly dominant, odds are against Djokovic winning No 25
The Serbian knows time is against him as his body starts to fail and the top two begin to pull away
Novak Djokovic, Wimbledon, 2025 © Action Plus / Psnewz
Novak Djokovic put his finger on the problem as succinctly as you might expect. Age, and injuries, are catching up with him.
“It’s just age, the wear and tear of the body,” the 38-year-old said after his defeat by Jannik Sinner in the semi-finals at Wimbledon on Friday. “As much as I’m taking care of it, the reality hits me right now, last year and a half, like never before, to be honest. It’s tough for me to accept that because I feel like when I’m fresh, when I’m fit, I can still play really good tennis. I’ve proven that this year.
“But I guess playing best-of-five, particularly this year, has been a real struggle for me physically. The longer the tournament goes, the worse the condition gets. I reach the final stages, I reached the semis of every slam this year, but I have to play Sinner or Alcaraz. These guys are fit, young, sharp. I feel like I’m going into the match with tank half empty. It’s just not possible to win a match like that.”
Sinner match not one to judge him by
The good news is that Djokovic said he expects and hopes to be back at Wimbledon next year but as he continues to chase that elusive 25th Grand Slam title, things are getting tougher and tougher.
The match with Sinner at Wimbledon, in itself, should not be used to condemn Djokovic to the scrapheap. The seven-time champion was clearly hampered by injury, to the extent where he was not moving for some balls. His second serve was enormously vulnerable and when rallies extended to five shots or more, he was a distinct second-best.
However, Djokovic’s main point was bang on. At 38, it’s only going to get harder to win a slam. Playing and winning seven matches over the best of five sets is a difficult enough task anyway, but with Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz elevating themselves well ahead of the rest, it’s even more difficult.
Djokovic has to beat one or both of Sinner and Alcaraz
Just like it was in the time of the Big 3, which of course included Djokovic, alongside Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, breaking their stranglehold was incredibly hard to do, mostly because to win a slam you almost always had to beat at least one and often two of them to do so. Marin Cilic did it at the US Open, beating Federer along the way; Stan Wawrinka won three slams, beating Nadal and Djokovic (twice) in two of his three finals. Andy Murray also beat Djokovic in two of his three slam wins.
But most players found the Big 3 a block and that’s what’s happening now to Djokovic when it comes to Sinner and Alcaraz. The two men have won the last seven slams between them and at 23 and 22 respectively, they have youth on their side.
“It is what it is, you know?” Djokovic said. “It’s one of these things I accept and embrace in some way, deal with the reality the way it is, and try to make the most out of it, I guess.”
As Djokovic said, there’s little he can do, you would imagine, to improve his physical strength and avoid injury. This is a man who’s got the absolute most out of his body, stretching the limits of what’s possible.
At 38, though, he appears to have reached the limit, at least in terms of winning a slam, unless, of course, the draw opens up somewhere. If that happens, he’s undoubtedly good enough, still, to walk through it but that’s only if the cumulative effort of playing so much tennis does not get to him first. Federer and Nadal won their last slams at the age of 36; Djokovic was also 36 when he won the US Open in 2023 for his record-equalling 24th slam title.
Motivation still there, for the slams
It’s hard to see Djokovic playing a full schedule from here on. He’s talked long and often about how the only things that motivate him nowadays are the Grand Slams. Speaking after his Wimbledon exit, he seemed genuine in his desire to return next year and there’s no question that if he’s fit at the US Open, he will be competitive.
But don’t expect him to play both Masters 1000s beforehand. Even in his pomp, he regularly skipped one or other. I’d be surprised to see him play more than two events of any kind before the US Open, maybe even one. He needs to be fresh to have a chance.
He’s still a great player, of that there is no doubt. The way he completely outplayed then world No 2 Alexander Zverev at the French Open showed his tactical nous is way above the German and most others. But he has not beaten Sinner since the 2023 ATP Finals and has lost their last five battles; and though he did beat Alcaraz at the Olympics last summer and at the Australian Open in January, the Spaniard is getting stronger and stronger.
That win over Alcaraz was the last great match Djokovic has played at the slams, a win that could help him in the coming months as he plots what is surely his final salvo on the tennis Tour. Australia, where he has won 10 times, is an obvious chance for him and though Roland-Garros has always been the most difficult, he remains formidable on grass and will not want his last match here to be one where he was injured.
“I would be sad, but hopefully it’s not my last match on the Centre Court,” he said. “I’m not planning to finish my Wimbledon career today. So I’m planning to come back definitely at least one more time, play on the Centre Court for sure.”
Is 36 the cut-off? Djokovic is 38
Djokovic’s game is still there, it’s just his body that is letting him down. At 38, he remains a fantastic player, but there are two others out there who are just as great, and 15 and 16 years younger. No one should write him off – that’s a recipe for disaster – but the odds are increasingly against him.
In 2023, Djokovic won three Grand Slam titles and reached the final of the other one, Wimbledon. In theory, there should be little difference between Djokovic at 36 and 38, but injuries become more common, and take more time to recover from.
Federer’s last ever match at Wimbledon saw him lose 6-0 in the third set against Hubert Hurkacz, a sad finale for such a great champion, his knee giving way beneath him. Nadal’s last ever Grand Slam match saw him battling the hip injury that ended his career, losing in round one to Zverev at Roland-Garros, a tournament he won 14 times.
Djokovic will not want his last Wimbledon to be one where he limped away, beaten so easily. And the chances are he will return, both there and keep fighting for the slam titles for the next year. Winning one, with Sinner and Alcaraz around, though, seems an almost impossible task.
