Djokovic – Alcaraz: 7 facts you gotta have in mind before watching the blockbuster
In a clash of generations, Novak Djokovic (38, No. 7 seed) and Carlos Alcaraz (22, No. 2 seed) will meet in the US Open semi-finals on Friday, with everything on the line.
Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, US Open 2025 | © Antoine Couvercelle pour MTG
1. Djokovic holds the momentum in their rivalry’s biggest moments
While their head-to-head record is closely contested at 5-3 in favor of Djokovic, a rivalry that began in Madrid in 2022, the most recent and significant battles have gone the Serb’s way. He defeated Alcaraz in the Australian Open quarterfinals earlier this year, winning a thrilling four-setter 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4. He also secured a dominant victory in the gold medal match at the Paris Olympics in August 2024, winning 7-6(3), 7-6(2). These two wins, in the sport’s biggest arenas, give Djokovic a psychological edge heading into a Grand Slam semi-final.
2. Alcaraz is having his most dominant Grand Slam run yet
Carlos Alcaraz has been nothing short of sensational in New York. The 22-year-old Spaniard is yet to drop a single set on his path to the semi-finals, a feat he has never accomplished at a major tournament before. This year, his journey has been a masterclass of efficiency, a stark contrast to his marathon 2022 title run that saw him spend over 23 hours on court. This year, he’s dispatched opponents like Opelka, Bellucci, Darderi, Rinderknech and Lehecka with clinical precision, a sign of a player at the peak of his powers, fresh and ready for the ultimate test.
3. The Alcaraz serve is a weapon of the highest caliber
Alcaraz’s serve has been a key factor in his flawless run, more than ever. He has won an exceptional 84% of points behind his first serve, a statistic that ranks among the top three on tour at the 2025 US Open. But even more impressive is his performance on the second serve. Alcaraz has won 68% of his second-serve points, a remarkable nine percent better than Djokovic’s own excellent number. This statistical advantage on the second serve is desperately needed against the greatest returner the sport has ever seen.
4. A slight edge on break points for Djoko
Djokovic is still a monster when it comes to pressure points, and his comments after defeating Taylor Fritz reflect his mental fortitude. “I thought I was lucky to really save crucial breakpoints,” Djokovic said. “For most of the second and third set he was the better player. In these kinds of matches, few points decide the winner. It was fortunately coming on my side, particularly at the end of the fourth set.” While both players are exceptional returners and will create chances, the statistics show a slight edge in conversion for the Serb, with Djokovic winning 27 break points to Alcaraz’s 23 throughout the tournament. The epic 2023 Cincinnati final shows how every point matters.
5. Djokovic is playing for history, and then some
For Novak Djokovic, every match is a chance to rewrite the record books. A victory in this semi-final would propel him to his 38th Grand Slam final, extending his all-time men’s record. More importantly, he is on a quest for his 25th major, which would give him the sole all-time record for most Grand Slam singles titles, surpassing the legendary Margaret Court’s all-time mark of 24. At 38 years old, he is also vying to become the oldest US Open champion in the Open Era, a record currently held by Ken Rosewall, who won the Australian Open 1972 at 37 years and 2 months. The weight of these historical stakes is something Djokovic has proven time and again that he can handle, even thrive under.
6. Alcaraz has more to prove on hard courts against Djokovic
Despite his two wins over Djokovic on grass at Wimbledon finals (2023? 2024), Alcaraz has a clear hurdle to overcome on hard courts. In their three meetings on the surface, which include their last two matches (at the 2023 ATP Finals and the 2023 Australian Open) and a thriller in the 2023 Cincinnati final, Djokovic has won all of them. This is the first time they will meet on the hard courts of the US Open, and Alcaraz will be looking to prove he can defeat his rival on any surface. A win here would not only secure his place in the final but also validate his claim as the most complete player in the sport.
7. A potential return to the throne awaits Alcaraz
While winning the US Open is the primary objective, there’s an added incentive for Carlos Alcaraz. With his rival Jannik Sinner also reaching the semi-finals, Alcaraz has a clear path to reclaiming the World No. 1 ranking for the first time since September 2023. If he matches or betters Sinner’s result in the tournament, he will return to the top spot. This is a tangible reward for a truly exceptional season that has seen him win six titles and lead the ATP Tour in wins (58) before the US Open.
