Who are the favorites to win the Australian Open 2026?

The Australian Open 2026 (Melbourne Park, January 18 to February 1, with knockout rounds starting January 25) is shaping up around two clear betting leaders—Jannik Sinner on the men’s side and Aryna Sabalenka on the women’s—followed by a stacked group of proven champions and dangerous hard-court specialists. Below is a full, detail-heavy rundown of every major name currently priced near the top of the futures market, using the key 2025 results that built this hierarchy.

Jannik Sinner

Sinner enters AO 2026 as the market favorite because his recent hard-court resume is the most reliable on tour. His -110 line translates to a 52.38% implied chance and a $9.09 profit on a $10 stake. He’s also the defending champion after beating Alexander Zverev 6–3, 7–6(7–4), 6–3 in the 2025 final, a match where he didn’t face a single break point. That win made him the first Italian man with three Grand Slam titles, eclipsing Nicola Pietrangeli’s late-1950s mark. Even in a season where Carlos Alcaraz finished No. 1, Sinner’s hard-court dominance stayed elite. In October, he captured Vienna by rallying past Zverev 3–6, 6–3, 7–5 in two hours and 28 minutes, hitting 44 winners and 11 aces while fighting hamstring cramps. That result extended his indoor hard-court unbeaten streak to 21 matches, brought his season title count to four at that point, pushed his tour-level total to 22 titles, and left him with 51 career wins over top-10 opponents. His head-to-head with Zverev is now even at 4–4. Those numbers, plus his proven five-set stamina and Australia-specific confidence, explain why he’s priced so short.

Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz is the only man close to Sinner on the futures board, listed at +150 with a 40% implied probability and a $15 return on a $10 wager. The market is basically saying “Sinner or Alcaraz,” and that’s not hype—Alcaraz just authored a monster 2025 that rewrote the points ledger. In 2025 he amassed 12,050 ATP points, breaking Novak Djokovic’s 2020 record of 12,030 and landing only behind Andy Murray’s all-time high of 12,410 from 2016. It was the second time he ended the year as world No. 1, and he finished ahead of Sinner’s 11,500 and Zverev’s 5,160, with the Alcaraz-Sinner duo taking eight of the nine highest-point ATP events. He collected seven titles including the French Open, US Open, and Masters trophies in Paris, Rome, Monte-Carlo, and Cincinnati, and 88% of his points came between April and November—meaning he’s peaking deep into the season rather than fading. Financially, ATP’s One Vision rules cut his bonus from £3.6 million to £1.8 million due to missed Masters 1000s, but that penalty doesn’t blunt his on-court threat. If his serve holds up on fast Oz courts, his ceiling is title-level again.

Novak Djokovic

Djokovic is still given respect at +1300, implying 7.14% and a $130 profit on $10. That’s a big number for a player who has owned Melbourne for years, but the market is pricing in age, mileage, and the rise of Sinner-Alcaraz. Even with lower odds, Djokovic’s Australian Open pedigree is unmatched in the field. He’s the last man to win the event before the Sinner/Alcaraz era fully took over, and his ability to solve five-set puzzles in extreme heat is a built-in advantage. The line says he needs everything to align—draw, health, and timing—but if he lands on the right side of the bracket, no one is thrilled to see him across the net in week two.

Alexander Zverev

Zverev sits at +1900 (5% implied, $190 profit). He was the AO 2025 finalist and keeps showing up late in Slams, but he’s still chasing the breakthrough. The 2025 AO final loss to Sinner was Zverev’s third defeat in a Grand Slam final. He’s openly vowed to keep pushing for a major, and his huge serve is tailor-made for Melbourne’s pace. The Vienna final in October showed he can trade with Sinner in tight moments even as their rivalry sits 4–4. The question isn’t talent; it’s whether he can sustain aggression through seven best-of-five matches.

Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev is priced at +2200, or 4.35% implied, paying $220 on $10. He’s a former Australian Open winner and one of the best hard-court tacticians alive, which is why he’s always a threat even when not top-two in odds. His flat depth, elastic defense, and return patterns are custom-built for Rod Laver Arena. In a field leaning toward power, his ability to drag servers into ugly rallies remains a unique weapon. If the tournament plays a touch slower or gets windy, his value jumps quickly.

Jack Draper

Draper is the first true “new-wave” contender on the men’s board at +3500, implying 2.78% and a $350 profit for $10. The odds are long but not dismissive. Draper’s left-handed patterns open up hard-court angles that bother right-heavy draws, and Melbourne historically rewards aggressive first-strike tennis. With the tour shifting younger, Draper is the type of player who can turn a quarterfinal into a title bid if confidence catches fire early.

Taylor Fritz

Fritz checks in at +4000, a 2.44% implied chance, and $400 profit on $10. His route is clear: dominate service games, keep points short, and hope the draw removes a couple elite returners. On quick Aussie hard courts, his serve-forehand combo can ride streaks, and if you’re shopping futures, through the best sports betting apps you’ll see him consistently hovering in that second tier.

Alex de Minaur

Australia’s top hope, de Minaur, is priced at +5500 (1.79% implied, $550 return). He already proved he can hang deep in Melbourne by reaching a 2025 quarterfinal where Sinner beat him 6–3, 6–2, 6–1. That loss still revealed how much pressure his pace can create on home courts. If he brings a more lethal first serve in 2026, the crowd factor could turn tight matches his way.

Aryna Sabalenka

On the women’s side, Sabalenka is the favorite at +200, giving a 33.33% implied title chance and a $20 profit on $10. She’s been atop the board all year, even after losing the 2025 Australian Open final. Her 2025 season shows why she’s still No. 1 in odds. She won Brisbane in January by beating Polina Kudermetova 4–6, 6–3, 6–2; lost the Australian Open final to Madison Keys 3–6, 6–2, 5–7; fell at Indian Wells to Mirra Andreeva 6–2, 4–6, 3–6; then beat Jessica Pegula to win Miami 7–5, 6–2. She added the Madrid WTA 1000 title over Coco Gauff 6–3, 7–6^(7–3), won the US Open final against Amanda Anisimova 6–3, 7–6^(7–3), and reached the WTA Finals title match after group wins over Jasmine Paolini, Pegula, and Gauff before beating Anisimova in the semis—only to lose the Riyadh final to Elena Rybakina 3–6, 6–7^(0–7). Her yearly tally: 9 singles finals, 4 titles, 5 runners-up, with finals by tier listed as Grand Slams (1–2), WTA Tour Championships (0–1), WTA 1000 (2–1), WTA 500 (1–1), and surfaces Hard (3–3) and Clay (1–2). That’s a lot of elite consistency on hard courts, which is Melbourne’s currency.

Iga Swiatek

Swiatek is second favorite at +440, implying 18.52% with $44 profit on $10. She doesn’t rely on raw pace; she relies on control and brutal point-construction. The market respects her adaptability, and she’s the most likely to punish Sabalenka if conditions run a bit cooler or slower. Her steady return pressure and willingness to redirect pace make her the field’s most reliable counterweight to Sabalenka’s first-strike power.

Coco Gauff

Gauff sits at +750 (11.76% implied, $75 profit). Her 2025 included a French Open title, and she beat Sabalenka in the Roland-Garros semifinal and in other big moments, showing she can trade power with the tour’s biggest hitters. If her serve percentage spikes in Melbourne, she’s a real contender who can win ugly or pretty, depending on the matchups.

Elena Rybakina

Rybakina is co-third at +750, also 11.76% implied and $75 on $10. Her 2025 surge peaked when she won the WTA Finals, beating Sabalenka in straight sets 3–6, 6–7^ (0–7). She also pushed deep late in the year, and her first-strike serve pattern is lethal on Australian hard courts. When she’s finding her spots early, her matches can look non-negotiable.

Mirra Andreeva 

Andreeva is next at +950, implying 9.52% and returning $95 for $10. She already owns two WTA 1000 trophies from 2025 and beat Sabalenka in the Indian Wells final, which is basically a hard-court warning label to the rest of the draw. Her nerves look older than her age, and she plays tight moments like she expects to be there.

Madison Keys

Keys is priced at +1200 (7.69% implied, $120 profit). She won her first Grand Slam by taking the 2025 Australian Open final over Sabalenka, and the odds show she’s not being treated like a fluke. Her flatter, early-contact hitting plays fast in Melbourne, and the confidence of defending a title can be a real performance amplifier.

Amanda Anisimova

Anisimova shares +1200, 7.69% implied, and $120 on $10. She was the 2025 US Open runner-up to Sabalenka and also reached the WTA Finals semifinal, losing there to Sabalenka before that same Sabalenka fell to Rybakina. The market is baking in her momentum and her ability to play baseline power tennis without leaking errors in the big spots.

Naomi Osaka

Osaka’s number is +1600 (5.88% implied, $160 profit). Even if she hasn’t dominated every week lately, her hard-court ceiling is still title-level in Melbourne, a place where she’s historically felt comfortable taking the ball early. If her return rhythm locks in early rounds, she becomes a bracket-breaker fast.

Recent Australian Open odds context

Recent Australian Open betting history underlines why favorites deserve respect, but chaos is always possible. Men’s winners were Sinner at +120 in 2025 and +500 in 2024, Djokovic at -120 in 2023, Nadal at +550 in 2022, Djokovic at +130 in 2021, and so on. On the women’s side, Keys won at +3300 in 2025, Sabalenka at +450 in 2024 and +700 in 2023, Osaka at +550 in 2021, and Kenin shocked at +6600 in 2020. The takeaway is simple: Sinner and Sabalenka deserve top billing going into AO 2026, but Melbourne has a recent habit of letting one fearless outsider crash the party when the draw opens up and form peaks at the right time.