Madrid draw sets up brutal top half as Sinner eyes fifth straight Masters crown, with Shelton and Fils on collision course
With Alcaraz and Djokovic among eight men to withdraw, the world number one faces the tougher side of the bracket as Munich champion Shelton and Barcelona winner Fils loom as potential semi-final opponents.
Jannik Sinner, 2026 | © Chryslène Caillaud, PsNewz
The draw for the 2026 Mutua Madrid Open was made on Monday, after no fewer than eight men pulled out of the main draw before a ball was struck, headlined by Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. Alcaraz, who also withdrew from the Barcelona Open citing a right wrist injury, wrote on social media that it hurt enormously not to play at home for the second year in a row. Djokovic, a three-time champion at the Caja Mágica, last competed at Indian Wells in March, having missed Miami due to a right shoulder injury. He said he is continuing his recovery and hopes to return soon.
And yet the bracket that emerged on Monday morning looks anything but thin.
Jannik Sinner arrives in Madrid as the most dominant force in men’s tennis, carrying a 17-match winning streak and four consecutive Masters 1000 titles across Paris Masters, Indian Wells, Miami and Monte-Carlo, having dropped just one set across all four tournaments. The Italian, who has never gone beyond the quarter-finals in Madrid, will start as an overwhelming favourite. The draw, however, has handed him the harder half.
Shelton – Fils fourth round?
Sinner’s projected path to the final runs through Tommy Paul (15) in the fourth round and Andrey Rublev (9), 2024 champion or fifth seed Alex de Minaur. That match, should it happen, would be compelling enough on its own. But De Minaur first has to navigate a minefield. The Australian could face Spanish wildcard Rafael Jodar, who lifted the trophy in Marrakech and reached the semi-finals in Barcelona, as early as the second round, with Joao Fonseca lurking as a potential third-round opponent. Fonseca, who reached the quarter-finals in both Monte-Carlo and Munich, is one of the most dangerous floaters in the entire draw.
The second quarter of the top half is, if anything, even more combustible. Fourth seed Ben Shelton enters with enormous momentum after claiming the Munich title, his most significant clay-court result to date. He receives a first-round bye and will face the winner of Berrettini against Collignon in the second round. Arthur Fils (21), meanwhile, faces Buse or Mannarino in his opener before a potential fourth-round showdown with Shelton, who arrives fresh off his Barcelona title. Two title winners from the same week, on a collision course before the quarters, with Musetti waiting beyond them and Sinner potentially in the semi-finals. This is arguably the most competitive quarter in the entire draw.
The bottom half tells a considerably different story. Alexander Zverev, who won Madrid in 2018 and 2021, has been handed a more manageable route to the final. The German opens against Borges or Navone, with Humbert a potential third-round test and Mensik (23) or Khachanov (13) in the fourth round. His seeded quarter-final opponent is seventh seed Daniil Medvedev, a matchup that carries significant historical weight. Medvedev leads that head-to-head 14-8, though clay and altitude at the Caja Mágica tilt conditions firmly toward the German.
Third seed Félix Auger-Aliassime, runner-up here in 2024, is projected to meet Alexander Bublik (8) in the quarter-finals. It is in this section that defending champion Casper Ruud must also make his presence felt. The Norwegian, seeded twelfth, opens against Munar or Shevchenko before facing Cerundolo in the third round and a potential fourth-round clash with Bublik. Ruud is the best pure clay-court player in his section but fitness concerns hang over him, and if he is not at full capacity, this section opens up dramatically.
MADRID MASTERS 1000 Projected fourth-round matches:
- Sinner (1) vs. Paul (15)
- De Minaur (5) vs. Rublev (9)
- Shelton (4) vs. Vacherot (14) or Fils (21)
- Musetti (6) vs. Lehecka (11)
- Auger-Aliassime (3) vs. Cerundolo (16)
- Bublik (8) vs. Ruud (12)
- Medvedev (7) vs. Cobolli (10)
- Zverev (2) vs. Mensik (23)
Projected quarter-finals:
- Sinner (1) vs. De Minaur (5)
- Shelton (4) vs. Musetti (6)
- Auger-Aliassime (3) vs. Bublik (8)
- Zverev (2) vs. Medvedev (7)
Main draw play begins on Wednesday. The final is scheduled for Sunday, 3 May.
They withdrew : Taylor Fritz, Holger Rune, Sebastian Korda, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Arthur Cazaux and Kamil Majchrzak also withdrew, replaced by Sebastian Ofner, Roberto Bautista Agut, Francisco Comesana, Alexander Shevchenko, Alexandre Muller, Alexander Blockx and Thiago Agustin Tirante respectively.
