Race to Turin: Medvedev can retake fifth on Thursday as de Minaur waits for Cobolli or Berrettini
Daniil Medvedev can retake fifth place in the Race to Turin by beating Cameron Norrie in Vienna on Thursday, while Alex de Minaur waits in the quarterfinals for Flavio Cobolli or Matteo Berrettini.
Daniil Medvedev, Vienna 2026 | © Gepa / PsNewz
Every morning this week, Tennis Majors follows the race for the last places at the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin (Nov. 15-22). On Thursday, seven of the men chasing the five places still open play in Vienna and Basel, and the first move to watch is Daniil Medvedev’s: a win over Cameron Norrie would lift him to 3,710 points in the PIF ATP Live Race to Turin and back into fifth place, at least until Flavio Cobolli plays Matteo Berrettini.
Three men are already in: Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton. Jannik Sinner, second in the Race, is out for the rest of the season. The five remaining places are held this morning by Cobolli (3,680), Medvedev (3,660), Arthur Fils (3,475), Frances Tiafoe (3,380) and Rafael Jodar (3,184). The first man outside, Alex de Minaur (2,930), is already in the Vienna quarterfinals, where he will face the winner of Cobolli and Berrettini.
Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton have already qualified for the Nitto ATP Finals (Nov. 15-22), and all three play on Thursday. Zverev, who faces Tallon Griekspoor, is a win away from becoming world No. 1 in the PIF ATP Rankings on Monday. Jannik Sinner, second in the Race, is out for the rest of the season, which leaves five places in play. As things stand they belong to Cobolli (3,680), Medvedev (3,660), Arthur Fils (3,475), Tiafoe (3,380) and Rafael Jodar (3,184).
Race to Turin, points since Jan. 1, before Thursday’s matches
| # | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Zverev Qualified |
|
9,190 |
| 2 | Jannik Sinner Out |
|
7,950 |
| 3 | Carlos Alcaraz Qualified |
|
4,650 |
| 4 | Ben Shelton Qualified |
|
4,520 |
| Qualification cut this week: 4,015 | |||
| 5 | Flavio Cobolli Vienna 2R · plays today |
|
3,680 |
| 6 | Daniil Medvedev Vienna 2R · plays today |
|
3,660 |
| 7 | Arthur Fils Basel 2R · plays today |
|
3,475 |
| 8 | Frances Tiafoe Out of Vienna |
|
3,380 |
| 9 | Rafael Jodar Basel 2R · plays today |
|
3,184 |
| Last place in: 9th, 3,184 | |||
| 10 | Alex de Minaur Vienna QF |
|
2,930 |
| 11 | Novak Djokovic Basel 2R · plays today |
|
2,890 |
| 12 | Taylor Fritz Basel 2R · plays today |
|
2,735 |
| 13 | Tommy Paul Vienna 2R · plays today |
|
2,675 |
The qualification cut is the total the live standings give as a guarantee of a place this week. With Sinner out, ninth place is the last place in.
Yesterday
Wednesday thinned the field. Frances Tiafoe lost to Lorenzo Musetti in the first round in Vienna and Jakub Mensik lost to Adrian Mannarino in the second round, while Medvedev beat Daniel Merida. In Basel, Novak Djokovic beat Ugo Humbert and Taylor Fritz beat Rinky Hijikata. De Minaur’s win took him to 2,930 points, Djokovic’s to 2,890 and Fritz’s to 2,735. Medvedev’s first-round win left his total unchanged, because only a player’s best results outside the Grand Slams and Masters 1000 events count.
Thursday’s matches
Thursday: what a win is worth in the Race
| Player | Now | Win | Then |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev vs. Norrie, Vienna 2R |
3,660 | 3,710 | 5th |
| Flavio Cobolli vs. Berrettini, Vienna 2R |
3,680 | 3,730 | 5th |
| Arthur Fils vs. Michelsen, Basel 2R |
3,475 | 3,525 | 7th |
| Rafael Jodar vs. Vacherot, Basel 2R |
3,184 | 3,234 | 9th |
| Novak Djokovic vs. Struff, Basel 2R |
2,890 | 2,940 | -244 |
| Taylor Fritz vs. Shapovalov, Basel 2R |
2,735 | 2,785 | -399 |
| Tommy Paul vs. Darderi, Vienna 2R |
2,675 | 2,725 | -459 |
“Then”: place in the Race after a win, or the gap to Jodar’s 3,184 this morning. Medvedev’s win would put him fifth only until Cobolli plays.
Medvedev vs. Norrie, Vienna, second round
Medvedev leads their head-to-head 5-1 and is on a five-match winning streak after Sunday’s Almaty title. He leads all players with 39 hard-court wins this season and is looking for the 100th tour-level quarterfinal of his career. Norrie is 2-6 against top-10 players this season.
Cobolli vs. Berrettini, Vienna, second round
The winner meets de Minaur in the quarterfinals. Cobolli beat Grigor Dimitrov in the first round for a personal-best 36th win of the season, but he is 2-7 against fellow Italians on hard courts. It is their first meeting, and Berrettini has reached the quarterfinals in all four of his previous Vienna appearances.
Djokovic vs. Struff, Basel, second round
Djokovic leads Jan-Lennard Struff 8-0 and is 6-0 at ATP 500 level this season after winning the Beijing title this month. A win would make the 39-year-old the oldest quarterfinalist in the tournament’s history, a mark held by Jimmy Connors, who reached that stage at 39 in 1991.
Fritz vs. Shapovalov, Basel, second round
Denis Shapovalov leads their head-to-head 6-5 and is 3-0 against Fritz indoors. Fritz is 14-3 at ATP 500 level this season and has reached the final at three of the four 500 events he has played.
Paul vs. Darderi, Vienna, second round
Paul leads Luciano Darderi 2-1 and would record a personal-best 46th win of the season. Darderi is 2-9 indoors at tour level, with both wins in Vienna.
Jodar vs. Vacherot, Basel, second round
Ninth in the Race, Jodar faces Valentin Vacherot for the first time in his Basel debut. Reaching the final would guarantee the 20-year-old his top-10 debut in the PIF ATP Rankings on Monday. Vacherot owns wins over Fils, de Minaur and Musetti.
Fils vs. Michelsen, Basel, second round
Fils beat Alex Michelsen in the Brussels quarterfinals last week and has won his last 10 matches against Americans since the start of 2025. A win would give him his 11th quarterfinal of the season.
The week ahead: only a title seals it
Medvedev and Cobolli remain the only men who can qualify this week, and only with the Vienna title: it would take Cobolli to 4,130 points and Medvedev to 4,110, past the 4,015 the live standings now give as a guarantee of qualification. Fils would top out at 3,925 in Basel and Jodar at 3,634.
What a title would be worth this week
| Player | Now | Max | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flavio Cobolli Vienna |
3,680 | 4,130 | Qualifies with the title |
| Daniil Medvedev Vienna |
3,660 | 4,110 | Qualifies with the title |
| Arthur Fils Basel |
3,475 | 3,925 | Inside the cut, cannot clinch |
| Rafael Jodar Basel |
3,184 | 3,634 | Inside the cut, cannot clinch |
| Frances Tiafoe eliminated |
3,380 | 3,380 | Out, stays inside the cut |
| Novak Djokovic Basel |
2,890 | 3,340 | Above 9th with the title |
| Alex de Minaur Vienna |
2,930 | 3,330 | Above 9th with the title |
| Taylor Fritz Basel |
2,735 | 3,185 | Above 9th with the title |
| Tommy Paul Vienna |
2,675 | 3,125 | Below 9th even with the title |
| Jakub Mensik eliminated |
2,500 | 2,500 | Out, week over |
Maximum totals this week, from the live Race. Qualification cut: 4,015. Ninth place this morning: Jodar, 3,184.
Tiafoe’s defeat leaves him on 3,380, but no one below him except Jodar can catch him this week: de Minaur tops out at 3,330 points and Djokovic at 3,340.
For the chasers, a title remains the target. It would take Djokovic to 3,340 and de Minaur to 3,330, both above Jodar’s current 3,184, while Fritz would reach 3,185 and Paul 3,125. Mensik’s week ended on 2,500 points.
Still to come this week
De Minaur plays the winner of Cobolli and Berrettini in the Vienna quarterfinals, with 3,030 points on offer for a win.
Sources: PIF ATP Live Race to Turin (live ranking, Thursday morning); ATP media notes, Erste Bank Open (Vienna) and Swiss Indoors Basel, Thursday, Oct. 29; 2026 ATP Rulebook (4.01, 9.03).
