ATP Finals 2025 Preview: Who Will Take the Crown? 

The season’s ultimate showdown, the Nitto ATP Finals 2025 in Turin, is just around the corner. A tournament where the top eight players in the world go head to head in an indoor hard court setting. It’s a year’s standout where fans can see the sight rarely seen during the season, the best tennis players in one week.

The format of the competition is simple: players are divided into two groups of four, where each player plays the other three in their group; the top two from each group advance to the semi finals, and then the winners meet in the final. It’s an exhausting final stretch for every player, but also a battle for the superior player of the year. The tournament is often seen as the showcase of the whole season, meaning that players will display all their tactics and strengths to reach the finals.

For the 2025 edition the hype is especially high, because two players in particular have defined the season, and several others are waiting in the wings.  

The Favorites: Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner 

Both players have been dominating the headlines for the whole season, so naturally they are the ones experts and fans are looking out for to lift the trophy.  

Alcaraz has enjoyed what some ATP Finals Expert Picks and Predictions are calling the season that could redefine his legacy, putting a lot of hope that the Spaniard would finish the year with one of the most prestigious titles of the season. On clay he was nearly unstoppable, with a 22-1 record on that surface alone. On other surfaces he demonstrated impressive adaptability, although not so stellar results. Indoor courts are rewarding consistency, flexibility and speed, which Alcaraz has in abundance. His season highlights include winning the French Open and the US Open, plus Masters titles at Monte Carlo, Rome and Cincinnati, showing that he can win on different surfaces.  

Carlos himself said that this is his best season so far, and that he is ready to go on a break with the trophy from Turin. The current number one in the world has a great momentum that he carries into the final events of the year, with more than 1000 points in front of Sinner. Early odds are painting a different picture, though. Alcaraz is the second favorite for the win behind Sinner, but is still very much in the mix. For punters looking to bet on ATP Finals, the odds quoted list Sinner at 1.67 and Alcaraz at 2.20. 

Jannik Sinner, the Italian superstar and the potential number one player in the world, has also had a magnificent year. He reclaimed the world number one ranking after winning the Paris Masters, and entered Turin as defending champion of the ATP Finals. His season has included grand slam success and Masters wins, such as two Grand Slam titles in Melbourne and London, Paris Masters and Indian Wells. An impressive streak. However, the year for Sinner has been anything but smooth sailing to the finals. Besides battling debilitating injuries, the Italian had to push through three months of suspension due to failing a doping test last year. It was physically and mentally draining on Jannik for sure. Still, he is coming to Turin as the defending champion, and that confidence and momentum could make a difference in his play.  

All Roads Lead to Turin 

From early in the hard court season, Alcaraz made improvements in his serve and focused on perfecting his game on all surfaces. At the Australian Open he reached the quarterfinals, where he lost to the legendary Novak Djokovic in four sets which served as a grim reminder that even the best in the world can have a bad day and may slip. The clay season arrived and Alcaraz shines on the court. He won Monte Carlo, Rome by defeating Sinner in the final, and he triumphed at the French Open with a dramatic comeback from two sets down. He became only the third man to have won big titles on all major clay tournaments, showing both mental strength and maturity.

On grass he made it deep at Wimbledon, but lost in the finals to Sinner. Still, Alcaraz showed great improvement in tactics and movements, marking him as one of the potential winners in Turin. The North American hard court championships saw him pick up the Cincinnati title and then the US Open, where he dropped only one set, lost serve just three times all tournament, and reclaimed world number one status. Alcaraz is set to go far at the indoor events with a pattern of winning in all big matches. He adapted his game to every surface and opponent, making him a dangerous rival in any tournament, especially the ones where he needed to defend his No. 1 ranking. Alcaraz is expected to play aggressively, with precise returns and impeccable serve. Hard indoor courts are where he feels comfortable, making it a perfect setting to grab that trophy that he does not yet own. Sinner’s season has been about consolidating his place at the top after a three month suspension. However, before the interruption in his play Sinner managed to win the Australian Open.

His performance on hard courts has been excellent, and he showed that he can win big titles. The grass season brought his first Wimbledon title, a huge milestone in his career, defeating Alcaraz in the final. A suspension caused by accidental doping violation would break the spirit of almost any player, but Jannik managed to overcome the challenge making a powerful comeback and reclaiming his number one spot earlier this year.As the indoor hard court season approached, he found his stride again, captured the Vienna title and then the Paris Masters. Sinner is playing the final tournament of the year at home, in Italy, where he enjoys a massive support, and he is coming as a defending champion which could boost his confidence and speed up his momentum. That said, he will need to manage fatigue and ensure he stays sharp in the group stage which could turn tricky if he can’t keep the focus.  

What Could Tip the Balance? 

The ATP Finals are not just about who has been the best this year so far, but rather about the form and mindset of players. First, the group stage means you can’t afford to start slowly. Dropping early matches is expensive, not just in prize money but in momentum. A player who comes into Turin tired or carrying a minor injury may struggle more than someone who has managed their schedule smartly. Second, indoor hard courts are different from outdoor events. Conditions are faster, the margin for error is smaller, and big servers or players who can control rhythm have an edge. Alcaraz’s adaptability helps him, while Sinner’s consistent shot making and mental toughness could put him ahead of other players. The question will be who can power through three matches in a group, then transition into knockout mode?  

Third, season fatigue. Alcaraz has played a large number of high intensity matches across different surfaces. Sinner has also done so, and his mid season break was forced rather than chosen. So stamina, recovery and staying healthy will matter. If one of them comes in just a little off, the others could swoop in. Fourth, the psychological edge. Sinner is the champion and has the crowd behind him. Alcaraz is chasing perhaps the ultimate cap on his season. The narrative may favor one or the other in a given match. In tight moments, those extra emotional reserves count. 

What to Watch in Turin? 

There are some simple elements to watch out for in Italy before the championship starts.  

One, how the favorites open their campaigns. Alcaraz or Sinner dropping the ball in a group match could rattle their rhythm and open the door for an upset.  

Two, how they handle the indoor conditions and their opponents’ styles. Look at service games, return games, how they cope with big hitters, and whether they can dictate or are forced into reactive mode.  

Three, how fatigue manifests. Are they moving as crisply as earlier in the year? Are they willing to conserve energy, go for the long rallies or cut the points short, pick battles and manage recovery between matches? The ATP Finals come at the very end of a long season, and fatigue is a common occurrence. Every player in the top eight has had a long season, tough matches, mental struggles and occasional injuries. All of this combined could influence the results in the finals.   

Fourth, whether the narrative weight affects them. Players who come to the tournament as favorites are scrutinized more by fans and media that put enormous amounts of pressure on their shoulders to deliver perfect matches. In real life things don’t always work out. Professional tennis players may look like machines on the court, but they have human struggles, both personal and career wise. Players who come to Italy more relaxed might surprise us with their play since they are not in the spotlight and don’t have to manage popularity, media circus, and endless questions about their form, fitness and health.  

Others Waiting in the Shadows 

While everyone’s focus is on the world’s top two players, there are others coming to Turin ready to cause a stir. Just having good stats and a brilliant season is not enough to end the season with a win at the final tournament. Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev are the kinds of players that can surprise us.  

Alexander Zverev secured his place in the finals in October by advancing in Vienna, confirming his 8th qualification in the past nine seasons. He has the advantage of being a two time champion in 2018 and 2021 but is also coming into the finals with not such a great track record this year. The whole season Zverev struggled with injuries, causing him to drop in form and in standings. However, he is not past his prime just yet. Zverev is a kind of player who is capable of surprising fans, hitting strong shots under pressure while staying focused and mentally present. With the round robin format of the Finals, he’ll need to bring his best right from the start and move quickly into the knockout mindset. His chances would mostly be decided by his physical form. 

Novak Djokovic is entering the tournament as a seven time champion and the most experienced player on tour. His season so far has not been his best, given that he is pushing 40, but his talents and determination call for respect. The only two things that could throw him off balance are his age and fitness. Will he be able to keep up with young players who have more stamina and strength? Djokovic thinks so. If he manages to find a good pace and stays out of long rallies, he might pose a threat to top seeded players.

Taylor Fritz is a young player who has had a great run this season. His performance last year at the Finals (he reached the final) shows he can handle the elite field and boost his confidence. Fritz has a couple of things working in his favor, his serve that never fails him under pressure, and his confidence on hard courts. On the other hand, his swings in energy and drops in focus could cost him.  

Ben Shelton has been impressive: strong results in the past year, service strength, and the game to challenge top players. However, being new to this finals format means he has less experience managing the group stage nuances and the added pressure. The chances for Shelton are exciting: if he can channel his momentum, stay fresh, and avoid nerves, he could surprise.  

Tennis history reminds us that the “final tournament of the season” often throws surprises. Fatigue, draw quirks, indoor court features and the group stage wrinkle all create opportunities for new players. So settle in over the next few days, enjoy the drama, the high quality tennis, and possibly one of the finest season ending shows in men’s sport. Whatever happens, Turin is set to deliver.