Alcaraz controls his destiny, Zverev–Auger-Aliassime set for a semifinal spot : The scenarios for the last round-robin matches at the ATP Finals
The round-robin stage of the 2025 ATP Finals will conclude on Thursday and Friday, with several qualification scenarios still open. In Group A, Carlos Alcaraz, Taylor Fritz, and Lorenzo Musetti remain in contention, while in Group B, Alexander Zverev and Félix Auger-Aliassime will battle for the last semi-final spot.
Inalpi Arena, ATP Finals 2025 | © BPI / Bestimage / PsnewZ
Group COnnors : Alcaraz in, except if…
The situation: Alcaraz controls his own destiny after his two first wins, while De Minaur needs a near miracle to advance.
Current standings:
| Pos. | Player | Match W/L | Set W/L | Set % | Game W/L | Game % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz | 2–0 | 4–1 | 80.00% | 32–23 | 58.18% |
| 2 | 🇺🇸 T. Fritz | 1–1 | 3–2 | 60.00% | 27–26 | 50.94% |
| 3 | 🇮🇹 L. Musetti | 1–1 | 2–3 | 40.00% | 24–28 | 46.15% |
| 4 | 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur | 0–2 | 1–4 | 20.00% | 24–30 | 44.44% |
Thursday’s schedule:
- Fritz vs. De Minaur – 2:00 p.m.
- Alcaraz vs. Musetti – 8:30 p.m.
How qualification could work:
- If Fritz defeats De Minaur, the Australian will be officially eliminated, ending his ATP Finals campaign with 0 wins and 6 losses across two appearances. Fritz would then qualify automatically if Alcaraz beats Musetti.
- If Fritz defeats De Minaur and the Musetti beats Alcaraz, all three players (Alcaraz, Fritz, and Musetti) would finish with a 2-1 record. In that case, the percentage of sets won — and, if necessary, games won – would determine who advances. Musetti would need to win in two in any case.
- If De Minaur beats Fritz, he would still need Alcaraz to defeat Musetti to keep his chances alive. In that scenario, Alcaraz would top the group (and secure the year-end No. 1 ranking) with a 3-0 record.
- De Minaur’s only path involves winning in straight sets and hoping other results go his way.
Every set – and potentially every game – will matter in deciding who advances from this group.
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Group Borg
The situation: Sinner has already qualified, Shelton is eliminated, and Zverev–Auger-Aliassime will effectively play a quarter-final.
Current standings:
| Pos | Player | Match W/L | Set W/L | Set % | Game W/L | Game % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇮🇹 J. Sinner | 2–0 | 4–0 | 100.00% | 25–13 | 65.79% |
| 2 | 🇩🇪 A. Zverev | 1–1 | 2–2 | 50.00% | 20–21 | 48.78% |
| 3 | 🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime | 1–1 | 2–3 | 40.00% | 24–30 | 44.44% |
| 4 | 🇺🇸 B. Shelton | 0–2 | 1–4 | 20.00% | 26–31 | 45.61% |
Friday’s schedule:
- Sinner vs. Shelton – TBD
- Zverev vs. Auger-Aliassime – TBD
How qualification works:
- The winner of Zverev vs. Auger-Aliassime will qualify for the semi-finals as the second player from this group. The loser will be eliminated.
- Sinner is already guaranteed to finish top of the group, even if he loses in straight sets and Zverev wins 2-0. If both end with identical records and set ratios, Sinner’s head-to-head victory over Zverev ensures he stays ahead.
