Zverev set to finish year-end No. 1 as injured Sinner is ruled out for the season
Jannik Sinner leads the ATP rankings, but a knee injury that has sidelined him since Wimbledon has put his hold on the year-end No. 1 spot in serious doubt — and handed the advantage to Alexander Zverev.
Alexander Zverev, Laver Cup 2026 | © Getty Images / Laver Cup
Jannik Sinner leads the ATP rankings, but a knee injury that has sidelined him since Wimbledon – and will keep him out for the rest of the season – has cost him the year-end No. 1 ranking and handed it to Alexander Zverev.
Here is where the race stands, and why it is effectively over.
Sinner has 11,000 points, ahead of Zverev’s 9,720 and Carlos Alcaraz’s roughly 5,560. The 1,280-point lead is misleading, because rankings count only the past 52 weeks and Sinner is about to lose far more than his rivals.
Over the rest of the season, Sinner would have defended about 3,050 points – titles at Vienna (500) and the Paris Masters (1,000), an undefeated run at the ATP Finals (1,500) and a small total from Shanghai (50). Because he will not play again in 2026, those points come off his total with nothing to replace them. Zverev is defending only a few hundred points; Alcaraz about 1,000.
That leaves Sinner stuck at roughly 7,950 points. Zverev, even if he lost every remaining match, would finish around 9,140. Alcaraz, in his best possible case, tops out near 8,560.
Alcaraz cannot finish the year at No. 1
Those numbers settle it.
Alcaraz cannot finish the year at No. 1. Even if he won Shanghai, an indoor event, the Paris Masters and the ATP Finals without a loss, he would reach about 8,560 points, still below Zverev’s worst-case total. The Spaniard is playing for No. 2 or No. 3.
And Zverev is now assured of the top spot. No one left on the calendar can catch his floor, so the ranking is mathematically clinched. The 28-year-old German has capitalized all year on injuries to both Sinner and Alcaraz, winning the French Open and the US Open, and he will become the first German man since Boris Becker to finish a season at No. 1.
Sinner has not played since winning Wimbledon in July. He skipped the Canadian Open, withdrew from Cincinnati, pulled out of the US Open and then sat out the Asian swing, including the China Open and Shanghai. With his return now pushed to 2027, the points that kept him on top simply ran out.
