The Real Favourites to Win Wimbledon 2026

The grass-court swing always arrives with a peculiar blend of nostalgia and anticipation, and the 2026 edition of Wimbledon, which gets under way at the end of June at the All England Club, is no exception. And this year is crazy, you know why? The men’s world number one will not even be there!

The Carlos Alcaraz Absence

Carlos Alcaraz, a two-time champion, is working through one of the roughest patches of his recent career. A tendon-sheath inflammation in his right wrist, picked up in April at the Conde de Godó, ruled him out of Madrid, Rome, and the French Open. The Spaniard opted for caution and, at the time of writing, had still not put a date on his return. His camp keeps coming back to the same line: it’s the body that sets the schedule, not the calendar.

Will he be fit in time for Wimbledon? That was the million-dollar question until he burst the bubble and gave his reply: no! The wrist is central to his two-handed backhand and to the aggressive game that made his name on grass, so forcing a comeback would carry a serious risk. So he has decided to focus on making a full recovery instead of forcing himself back and risking long-term damage.

Sinner, the natural favourite

One notion making the rounds is worth correcting: that a Jannik Sinner title would be a “surprise”. Well, it would be nothing of the kind. The Italian is the defending champion – he saw off Alcaraz himself in the 2025 – and, with the Spaniard’s fitness still unresolved, he steps into the favourite’s role on merit. His flat game, his serve, and his solidity off the baseline are an ideal fit for the speed of the London grass.

With Alcaraz now confirmed to be out, the analytical models slot Sinner straight in as the outright favourite. For anyone keeping a close eye on the market, the Tennis predictions on betql.co give an up-to-date read on the odds and probabilities as the draw draws nearer.

The ones waiting for their chance

Behind the two usual suspects, an interesting chasing pack is forming. Novak Djokovic, a familiar finalist and semi-finalist at SW19, is still hugely dangerous over five sets despite his age. Home hope Jack Draper is dreaming of feeding off the energy of a British crowd. And the likes of Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, and Ben Shelton have the kind of serve to trouble anyone in the early rounds.

Wimbledon could hold some surprises

How Wimbledon 2026 unfolds depends, in large part, on a medical bulletin. With a fully fit Alcaraz we’d have been set for another “Sincaraz” battle; but without him, Sinner goes in as master of the house, with Djokovic as his main threat. The latest update on the Spanish prodigy is something we’ll want to watch very closely.

Grass, though, always has an unexpected story tucked away somewhere. The sensible approach is to follow things day by and, if you do decide to put something on the line, to do it with a level head. For that very reason, contrary to what plenty of people assume, we could be in for a genuinely compelling edition with no clear favourite to lift the trophy.