Mouratoglou says Sinner has same Roland-Garros odds as Nadal in his prime, ” but not for the same reasons”
Patrick Mouratoglou believes Jannik Sinner heads into Roland-Garros with a margin of superiority comparable to Rafael Nadal’s during the Spaniard’s peak years at the French Open. The Frenchman, who coached Serena Williams for a decade, made the comparison while assessing the Italian’s stretch of dominance on the ATP Tour. Sinner has won five consecutive Masters … Continued
Jannik Sinner, Madrid 2026 | © Madrid Trophy Promotion
Patrick Mouratoglou believes Jannik Sinner heads into Roland-Garros with a margin of superiority comparable to Rafael Nadal’s during the Spaniard’s peak years at the French Open.
The Frenchman, who coached Serena Williams for a decade, made the comparison while assessing the Italian’s stretch of dominance on the ATP Tour. Sinner has won five consecutive Masters 1000 titles – Indian Wells, Miami, Monte-Carlo, Madrid, with Rome to come – dropping only two sets across the entire run. World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz, the only player to have consistently troubled him over the past 18 months, is currently sidelined by injury and has been absent since his Australian Open exit.
“The chances that Jannik Sinner wins Roland-Garros cannot be higher,” Mouratoglou said on his social media. “For me, it’s as much as the chances Rafa had to win Roland-Garros throughout his career.” Rafa in Rafael Nadal, who won the tournament 14 times netween 2005 and 2022.
“So much margin on any surface, except against Carlos – but Carlos is out.”
The comparison is striking. Nadal posted a career match record of 112-4 at the tournament — a level of single-event dominance unmatched in the Open Era. Mouratoglou argues, however, that the two cases rest on different foundations. Nadal’s near-invincibility in Paris was built on a game tailor-made for clay: heavy topspin, extreme defensive range, and a forehand that punished the surface like no other. Sinner’s case, by his reading, is about across-the-board supremacy rather than surface specialization.
“With Rafa, it was really on clay that he had so much margin,” Mouratoglou said. “I think Jannik has so much margin on any surface, except against Carlos – but Carlos is out.”
Djokovic’s counter-example
The obvious counter-example is Novak Djokovic, who failed to win Roland-Garros during his most dominant seasons in 2011 and 2015. Djokovic lost a semi-final to Roger Federer in 2011 and a final to Stan Wawrinka in 2015, despite arriving in Paris on both occasions as the overwhelming favorite. Mouratoglou acknowledged the parallel but rejected the conclusion.
“I think Jannik’s game for clay is better than Novak’s game for clay,” Mouratoglou said. “Novak’s backhand is quite flat. Jannik plays with much more margin over the net, and the quality of his ball is different – which is so important on clay.”
For Mouratoglou, the most telling indicator is psychological. He recalled the atmosphere in the locker room during Nadal’s reign at Roland-Garros, when opponents arrived in Paris already convinced they could not win. He sees the same dynamic forming around Sinner now, regardless of surface.
“The biggest danger for Jannik is injury”
“When Rafa played Roland-Garros, you couldn’t name one player who thought he had a chance to beat him,” Mouratoglou said. “When Jannik plays Roland-Garros this year, if he’s not injured, there isn’t one player who will think, ‘I can beat Sinner here.’ That’s why I see the same margin.”
The qualifier — “if he’s not injured” — is the only shadow Mouratoglou casts over his forecast. Sinner has played and won four straight tournaments since March, said in Madrid that he was tired, and has chosen not to skip Rome despite earlier speculation that he might. Beyond Rome lies Roland-Garros, then Wimbledon on grass three weeks later. Mouratoglou said he would have skipped either Monte-Carlo or Madrid to arrive in Paris fresher.
“The biggest danger for Jannik is injury,” he said during the raw interview, as Tennis Majors understands. “That’s the only thing that can stop him at the moment. He’s not the type of player who has mental saturation. His motivation is not up and down at all. It’s always up. So mentally, he can play every single week and win every single week. But his body can at some point say, ‘I can’t anymore.'”
Sinner, 24, has won the past three Grand Slams he has contested and is bidding for a first French Open title. Roland-Garros begins May 24.
