Sabalenka can lose the world No. 1 ranking on Tuesday without knowing who takes it, and here is every scenario

Aryna Sabalenka opens Tuesday on Arthur Ashe Stadium knowing a defeat by Linda Noskova ends 99 consecutive weeks as world No. 1, and that she will have to wait until Saturday to learn who takes the ranking from her. Elena Rybakina can settle it herself on Wednesday against a qualifier ranked No. 121, and would probably take it even by losing.

8 September 2026

Aryna Sabalenka, US Open 2026 ¬ © Zuma / PsNewz

Cédric Rouquette

Aryna Sabalenka’s 99 weeks as world No. 1 can end on Arthur Ashe Stadium on Tuesday afternoon, and the player most likely to take the ranking from her will not walk on court until the following day.

Elena Rybakina finishes this US Open as world No. 1 unless Zheng Qinwen beats her in Wednesday’s quarterfinal and Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula or Coco Gauff then wins the title.

The schedule gives that sentence a sharp edge. Sabalenka opens the day session on Arthur Ashe Stadium against Czech No. 6 seed Linda Noskova, ahead of the all-American men’s quarterfinal between Frances Tiafoe and Alex Michelsen. Pegula plays fellow American Emma Navarro first in the evening session, before Ben Shelton meets Carlos Alcaraz.

Gauff against Mirra Andreeva and Zheng against Rybakina are held over to Wednesday.

Sabalenka’s 99 weeks can end before she knows who ends them

Reaching the quarterfinals put Sabalenka on 7005 points and Rybakina on 8331. Those two numbers decide the first part of this. If Sabalenka loses to Noskova on Tuesday she stays on 7005, which is below the total Rybakina already holds even if she loses her own quarterfinal.

The top seed would be off the top of the rankings the moment she left the court, having held the position since October 21, 2024, a run that reaches 99 consecutive weeks this fortnight and stands as the sixth longest in WTA history.

What she would not know is who replaces her. That answer would still depend on Wednesday’s quarterfinal and on the identity of the champion on Saturday, neither of which she would have any part in.

Rybakina’s floor is high enough to survive losing

Beat Zheng and Rybakina is done: a semifinal takes her to 8681, more than Sabalenka would hold by winning the title, and more than anything available to Pegula or Gauff.

Lose to Zheng and she stays on 8331, which still survives a Sabalenka final at 7875, a Pegula final at 7785 and a Gauff final at 7764. Only the trophy is worth enough to pass her: Sabalenka champion is 8575, Pegula champion 8485, Gauff champion 8464.

Coco Gauff, US Open 2026 | © Virginie Bouyer for Creafeed & MTG

Which leaves an outcome nobody has priced. If Zheng beats Rybakina and the title then goes to Noskova, Navarro, Andreeva or Zheng herself, Rybakina becomes world No. 1 having been knocked out in the last eight.

Two features of the draw narrow it further. Sabalenka and Pegula are both in the top half and meet in the semifinals if they come through on Tuesday, so only one of them can reach the final at all. Gauff is in Rybakina’s half, which means her route to the title runs through Andreeva and then whoever survives Wednesday.

I completely separate myself from that, because it’s just guessing

Neither of the principals will do the sums. “I completely separate myself from that, because it’s just guessing,” Sabalenka said after beating Taylor Townsend 6-4, 6-3 in the fourth round. “It’s like if, if, if, if. There is always different statistics that social media brings, so I’m just completely trying to stay away from it.”

ybakina, who reached her first US Open quarterfinal by beating Naomi Osaka 6-1, 6-4 and has not dropped a set, gave the same answer from the other side. “No. 1 ranking is, of course, one of the goals. But the main focus for me, for the team, is to win the titles, and then the ranking will follow up.”

Standing between her and the top of the sport on Wednesday is a player ranked No. 121 who came through qualifying, has recovered a set from 0-5 in each of her last two matches, and beat six-time major champion Iga Swiatek 7-5, 6-3 to get here.

Zheng is the Olympic champion and a former world No. 4 whose ranking collapsed after elbow surgery, and the fortnight has already carried her back to the edge of the top 50, with a win on Wednesday taking her inside the top 15. She has spent it telling herself the opposite of what the rankings table now says about her importance. “The reality is you are just 125,” she said. “Don’t treat yourself so high.”