Cincinnati Open: Sinner, Alcaraz out – who benefits most?

The Cincinnati Open has produced its share of upsets and breakthrough champions over the years, but the 2026 edition arrives with a storyline nobody was expecting this early in the North American swing. For the second straight Masters 1000 event, both Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will be missing from the draw, leaving the men’s side of the tournament wide open just weeks before the US Open.

Sinner is dealing with a right knee issue and has not played since winning Wimbledon, while Alcaraz has been sidelined by a wrist injury that first flared up back in April and also kept him out of Toronto. Between them, the pair have won the latest two Cincinnati titles, so their absence changes the entire complexion of the draw. The best bookmakers had already been pricing this shift days before the tournament even started, and interest in outright markets has picked up noticeably now that the door is open for a new name to break through in Ohio

Zverev and Djokovic Move to the Front of the Queue

Alexander Zverev, the top seed in Cincinnati, is the most obvious beneficiary. He has already acknowledged as much himself, noting that Sinner’s dominance this season has made it difficult for anyone else to break through at Masters level. With Sinner out of the picture, Zverev has as clean a run at a big hard-court title as he is likely to get this year, though his early exit in Montreal against Tallon Griekspoor is a reminder that his form has not always matched the opportunity in front of him lately.

Novak Djokovic is the other name most people are pointing to. A three-time Cincinnati champion, Djokovic is returning to tour action for the first time since Wimbledon, and his draw has broken kindly. He sits in the same half as Zverev, meaning the two could meet in the semifinals, but his path there runs through players he has handled comfortably in the past. At 39, Djokovic does not need to be at his sharpest physically to still be dangerous on a surface and at a tournament where he has such a strong history.

The American Contingent Has a Real Chance Too

Beyond the two headline favorites, this is shaping up to be a good week for the American men. Taylor Fritz, fresh off a title run in Washington, is seeded seventh and avoids both Zverev and Djokovic in his half of the draw. Ben Shelton, the defending Canadian Open champion, carries momentum from a strong showing in Montreal, though his path through Cincinnati is tougher, with Ugo Humbert or Lorenzo Musetti looming in the fourth round.

Younger names are also worth watching. Nineteen-year-old Rafael Jodar has climbed the rankings quickly this season and has looked increasingly comfortable at Masters level, though fatigue after back-to-back weeks in Washington and Montreal could catch up with him before the later rounds.

On the Women’s Side, the Draw Is Just as Loaded

While the men’s draw is missing its two biggest names, the WTA field in Cincinnati has lost nobody at the top. World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka headlines a field that includes five past Cincinnati champions, while defending champion Elena Rybakina returns to defend her title. According to the ATP Tour’s own coverage of the tournament, several of the same American players who impressed in Montreal, including Brandon Nakashima and Learner Tien, will carry that momentum straight into Cincinnati.

What It Means Heading Into New York

Cincinnati has always served as the last real test before the US Open, and this year that test comes without two of the sport’s biggest draws. For Zverev and Djokovic, it is a genuine opportunity to build momentum heading into New York. For the rest of the field, it is a rare chance to make a statement at Masters level without having to get past either man first.

Whether the absences in Ohio turn into anything more than a two-week story will become clearer once the US Open draw is made at the end of the month, but for now, Cincinnati is shaping up to be one of the more unpredictable Masters events in recent memory. For more coverage of the North American hard-court swing as it heads toward New York, follow our ongoing ATP tour coverage here on Tennis Majors.