Race to Turin, daily: Cobolli qualifies, and Jodar’s fate now rests with de Minaur
Casper Ruud beat Rafael Jodar 6-3, 6-4 on Tuesday, a result that qualifies Flavio Cobolli for his first Nitto ATP Finals. Seven men remain for three places, and Jodar’s hopes now depend on Alex de Minaur’s match against Tomas Martin Etcheverry.
Alex de Minaur, 2026 | © Branislav Racko / PsNewz
Flavio Cobolli of Italy qualified for the Nitto ATP Finals (Nov. 15-22) on Tuesday without playing, when ninth seed Rafael Jodar of Spain lost 6-3, 6-4 to Norway’s Casper Ruud in the second round of the Rolex Paris Masters. The Italian, who withdrew from Paris on Monday with 3,690 points, will make his debut at the event in his home country.
Seven men are left for the last three places. Jodar stays ninth on 3,234 points, but his week is over, and Alex de Minaur would pass him with a win over Tomas Martin Etcheverry on Wednesday.
Five players are now qualified: Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Ben Shelton, Daniil Medvedev and Cobolli. With Jannik Sinner out for the rest of the season, ninth place is the last place in.
Race to Turin after Tuesday in Paris
| # | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Flavio Cobolli Qualified · withdrew from Paris | 3,690 | |
| Qualified: 5 of 8 places | |||
| 7 | Arthur Fils Paris: sixth seed, vs. Tomas Machac | 3,535 | |
| 8 | Frances Tiafoe Paris: seventh seed, vs. Quentin Halys | 3,390 | |
| 9 | Rafael Jodar Paris: lost to Casper Ruud | 3,234 | |
| Last place in: 9th | |||
| 10 | Alex de Minaur Paris: eighth seed, vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 3,170 | |
| 11 | Novak Djokovic Paris: 10th seed, vs. Rinky Hijikata | 2,940 | |
| 12 | Taylor Fritz Paris: 11th seed, vs. Alex Molcan | 2,900 | |
| 13 | Tommy Paul Paris: 12th seed, vs. Daniel Merida | 2,775 | |
PIF ATP Live Race to Turin, points since Jan. 1, after Tuesday’s matches. Zverev, Alcaraz, Shelton and Medvedev, ranked first to fifth with Sinner, are qualified. Sinner is out for the season, so ninth place is the last place in. Lehecka and Davidovich Fokina are out of the race.
How Jodar’s defeat sent Cobolli to Turin
Cobolli could only miss Turin if four players passed him this week. Jodar, who needed the final to do so, was the only contender without a rival in his own section of the draw.
The six others come in three pairs that could meet in the third round: Djokovic and de Minaur, Paul and Tiafoe, Fritz and Fils. Only one man in each pair can go far enough to overtake Cobolli, so no more than three can.
The Italian retired in tears against Matteo Berrettini in Vienna last Thursday, trailing 5-2 in the first set, and pulled out of Paris on Monday evening.
Jodar’s Turin hopes now in de Minaur’s hands
Jodar is out of Paris and stays on 3,234 points. De Minaur, 10th on 3,170, would pass him by beating Etcheverry, who beat Andrey Rublev 6-4, 6-7 (4), 7-6 (3) on Tuesday, and Jodar would then be out of the race.
If de Minaur loses, Jodar stays ninth unless Djokovic or Fritz reaches the semi-finals or Paul reaches the final.
What each contender needs in Paris
| Player | Still alive if he reaches | Sure of Turin if he reaches |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fils | Already alive | Quarter-finals |
| Frances Tiafoe | Already alive | Semi-finals |
| Rafael Jodar | Out in Paris, stays on 3,234 | Ninth only if de Minaur loses his first match and Djokovic, Fritz and Paul fall short |
| Alex de Minaur | Third round (must beat Etcheverry) | Final |
| Novak Djokovic | Semi-finals | The title |
| Taylor Fritz | Semi-finals; final if de Minaur beats Etcheverry | The title |
| Tommy Paul | Final | The title |
“Sure of Turin”: qualified whatever the other results, given the Paris draw. Calculated from the official ATP totals and the points for each round. A tie on points is treated as not sure.
Six contenders in action on Wednesday in Paris
Two contenders left the race on Tuesday. Jiri Lehecka lost 6-7 (5), 6-2, 6-4 to Alex Michelsen, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina withdrew before his opening match. Lucky loser Nuno Borges took his place and beat Moise Kouame 6-3, 6-1.
The six men still in the draw all play their second-round match on Wednesday, according to the order of play. Tiafoe opens the day on Court Central against Quentin Halys, who beat Arthur Fery 7-6 (6), 7-5 on Tuesday.
Djokovic, who came from a set down to beat Valentin Vacherot 6-7 (5), 7-5, 6-1, follows Alexander Zverev on the same court against qualifier Rinky Hijikata. Fils closes the night session against qualifier Tomas Machac, not before 8:30 pm.
On Court 2, Paul, who beat Holger Rune 7-5, 6-4, faces Daniel Merida, not before 12:30 pm. De Minaur and Etcheverry follow, then Fritz, who beat Benjamin Bonzi 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, against qualifier Alex Molcan.
Djokovic, Fritz and Paul cannot afford a defeat: each would stay below Jodar’s 3,234 points. Fils would make sure of his place by reaching the quarter-finals, Tiafoe the semi-finals and de Minaur the final, while Djokovic, Fritz and Paul need the title.
The draw could pair them off in Thursday’s third round: Djokovic against de Minaur, Paul against Tiafoe and Fritz against Fils. Each of the six needs one more win to get there.
Race totals by round reached in Paris
| Player | Now | R16 | QF | SF | F | W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fils | 3,535 | 3,625 | 3,725 | 3,925 | 4,175 | 4,525 |
| Tiafoe | 3,390 | 3,480 | 3,580 | 3,780 | 4,030 | 4,380 |
| de Minaur | 3,170 | 3,260 | 3,360 | 3,560 | 3,810 | 4,160 |
| Djokovic | 2,940 | 2,990 | 3,090 | 3,290 | 3,540 | 3,890 |
| Fritz | 2,900 | 2,950 | 3,050 | 3,250 | 3,500 | 3,850 |
| Paul | 2,775 | 2,825 | 2,925 | 3,125 | 3,375 | 3,725 |
“Now”: current total, kept with a defeat in his next match. R16, QF, SF, F: total if he reaches that round. W: total with the title. Jodar, out in Paris, stays on 3,234, and Cobolli, qualified, on 3,690.
