Why Alcaraz still has a big chance (and full control) to finish No.1 at the ATP rankings
Despite Jannik Sinner’s scorching indoor form, a deep structural advantage in the points he must defend means Carlos Alcaraz controls his own destiny at the ATP Finals.
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, Turin 2025 | © Zuma / PsNewz
When he opens the 2025 ATP Finals on Sunday, Carlos Alcaraz will feel more pressure than all of us – himself included – would have expected three weeks ago. At that time, Jannik Sinner considered it impossible for him to chase the No. 1 spot in the ATP rankings in 2025.
However, an incredible loss against Cameron Norrie at the start of the Rolex Paris Masters, combined with Sinner’s title run in the French capital, allowed the ATP to set up a scene in Turin: Alcaraz and Sinner fighting to get the No. 1 trophy in their hands. That’s the battle behind the battle for the title that will mark the ATP Finals.
Sinner the favourite but…
Sinner is the favourite to win the competition as he hasn’t lost indoors in two years. Alcaraz, on his side, hasn’t completely removed the doubt about his ability to play at his best under a roof. But that shouldn’t be enough for Sinner. Alcaraz is still in control. Simply because Sinner’s ATP Finals run reached perfection in 2024, and he can only repeat that performance – a clean sheet in the round-robin stage and a final win – to keep his current level of points.
Alcaraz, who was knocked out at the group stage in 2024, has more to gain.
To set things up clearly:
- Carlos Alcaraz is 100% sure to finish No. 1 if he wins three matches out of four or five.
- This means a loss in the semi-finals after a clean sweep at the round-robin stage, or a loss in the final with a loss at the RR stage.
Sinner currently holds 11,500 points, but he can’t earn more. He has to win the tournament to keep this total, with 1,500 points being the maximum any player can get at the ATP Finals. Alcaraz holds 11,250 points with more margin. He has only 200 points to defend, against 1,500 for his rival. In other words, Sinner starts the ATP Finals with a base of 10,000 points and Alcaraz with 11,050 points.
1500 points maximum
Here is how the points are delivered: 200 points per round-robin win, 400 for the semi-final win, and 500 for the final. So what a player can get is:
- Winner (undefeated): 1,500 points
- Winner (with one group loss): 1,300 points
- Semifinalist: 600–800 points, depending on round-robin wins.
Theoretically, even one round-robin win may suffice if Sinner falls early, but the Spaniard shouldn’t anticipate that. With two wins, he would be close, but only three wins can guarantee him the success even if Sinner triumphs with a clean sweep – something Alcaraz has never done at the ATP Finals. He didn’t play in 2022, had a 2-2 record in 2023 (losing in the semi-finals), and 1-2 in 2024.
In addition, if Sinner wins the title but loses one or two round-robin matches, Alcaraz can still clinch No. 1 by winning two or even one group match combined with reaching the final.
Alcaraz’s and Sinner’s perspective
In other words once again:
- If Alcaraz only wins 2 round-robin matches, he needs Sinner to lose at least one match in the round-robin stage.
- If the Spaniard only wins 1 round-robin match, he needs Sinner to lose two round-robin matches or fail early.
- If Alcaraz doesn’t win any match, his only hope can only be that Sinner does the same.
Seen from Jannik Sinner’s perspective, here are the options:
- If the Italian wins the ATP Finals undefeated, he becomes year-end No. 1 if Alcaraz loses at least one round-robin match or does not reach the final.
- If he wins the ATP Finals but loses one round-robin match: He needs Alcaraz to lose two round-robin matches.
- If he wins the ATP Finals but loses two round-robin matches: He needs Alcaraz to lose all round-robin matches.
The two players will start the talking on Sunday with Alcaraz – de Minaur on Sunday afternoon and Sinner – Auger-Aliassime or Musetti on Monday evening.
