The summit of the women’s season: Sabalenka meets Rybakina with the ranking settled and everything else still on the line
Aryna Sabalenka plays Elena Rybakina in the final of the US Open 2026, the third final at this tournament between the world No. 1 and No. 2 since 2000. Rybakina takes the No. 1 ranking on Monday regardless of the result, ending Sabalenka’s 99-week run. Sabalenka has far more to lose, but she is playing her best tennis of the year.
Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina, US Open 2026 | © PsNewz
The 2026 women’s US Open final pits the world No. 1 against the world No. 2 for the third time this century, after Serena Williams beat Venus Williams in 2002 and Victoria Azarenka in 2013, and the ranking is not what is at stake.
Elena Rybakina secured it by reaching the semifinals. She will be world No. 1 on Monday whether she wins on Saturday or not, the 30th player to hold the position and the first from Kazakhstan, and Aryna Sabalenka will lose it after 99 consecutive weeks. What is left to settle is the trophy.
Sabalenka’s level “insanely high”
On the evidence of Thursday night, Sabalenka should win it. Jessica Pegula, who lost the semifinal 7-5, 6-2, walked into the interview room and made the case for her opponent.
“That’s definitely, you can ask her, probably the best match she’s played this year,” Pegula said. “I thought her level was insanely high. Honestly, I don’t really know if there was much I could do today. I honestly don’t know if she missed a backhand the entire match. I really want to check.”
Her conclusion was blunt: “I do think the way she played tonight, she would have beaten anybody probably. She probably would have beaten, like, 99% of people.”
The record supports the reading. This is Sabalenka’s fourth consecutive US Open final, a run only Evonne Goolagong (1973-1976), Chris Evert (1975-1980), Martina Navratilova (1983-1987), Steffie Graf (1987-1990 and 1993-1996) and Serena Williams (2011-2014).
It is also her eighth consecutive Grand Slam final on hard courts, which nobody of either gender has done before, passing the seven held jointly by Graf, Martina Hingis and Novak Djokovic. Win and she becomes the third woman in the Open era to take three US Open titles in a row, after Evert and Serena Williams, and the first player ever to win her first five majors all on hard court.
The season Aryna cannot afford to leave empty
That is the case for her. Here is the pressure on top of it.
Sabalenka has won a Grand Slam title in each of the last three years, two Australian Opens (2023, 2024) and two US Opens (2024, 2025). Lose on Saturday and 2026 becomes her first season without one since 2022, with three titles at Brisbane, Indian Wells and Miami and nothing at the majors.
Both of her Grand Slam final defeats this year would have come against the same woman, Elena Rybakina, who would end the season with two majors and the ranking that used to be hers.
She says the ranking does not trouble her. Asked on Thursday whether she would accept Rybakina taking it provided she won a third straight US Open, she answered twice: “Yes, I’ll be more than happy,” and “Yes, three-peat. Sounds great.” Asked how it feels to arrive as No. 1 and leave without it: “I don’t care.” Then, more carefully: “Elena took it over and played really well. I can only focus on myself and just stay in the moment and do my best right now, just so I keep it tight and maybe I will take it back from her.”
Pegula named the weapon she does not have
The most useful thing Pegula said was not about Sabalenka at all. Asked what it would take to disturb that level, she listed the two things that might and admitted she owns neither.
“I’m not quite like a Rybakina where maybe I can kind of serve my way out of trouble,” she said. “I didn’t think I served bad, I served actually really well. But I’m not quite a Rybakina where I can serve myself out of trouble, and I’m not quite a Coco that can rely on insane athleticism. You would need one of those to maybe throw her off a bit.”
Coco Gauff went out in the semifinal. Rybakina is the one left, and she has the same plan.
“She’s a very aggressive player. It’s difficult to play with her, mentally, physically, because she has big game, big serve,” the Kazakh said about Sabalenka after beating Gauff 3-6, 6-4, 6-4. “I will need to come with all the energy I will have, bring my best serve against Aryna, and make the right decisions in the right moment, because most of the times it’s tight, tight score. This is where the decision makes a difference.”
She has done this before, to this opponent, in this situation
Rybakina is 9-8 in her career against players ranked world No. 1 at the time of the meeting. Since the WTA rankings began in 1975, only Serena Williams at 58.6% and Steffi Graf at 57.8% have beaten reigning No. 1s more often than her 52.9%. A win on Saturday would be her tenth over a sitting No. 1, and would make her the second woman ever to beat one in two Grand Slam finals in the same calendar year. The only other is Graf, in 1995.
The first of those two finals was in Melbourne in January, when she beat Sabalenka for the Australian Open title. Since that day, however, the traffic has run the other way. Sabalenka beat her in the Indian Wells final and the Miami semifinals on the way to both titles, and leads their head-to-head 10-7, although on hard courts, where 14 of their 17 meetings have been played, it is level at 7-7.
Rybakina’s own verdict on the ranking she has already won, delivered on Wednesday, framed everything since. “It’s just a number right now. Of course I’m in the semis, so my goal is to win the tournaments I play.” Finals starts at 4:00 pm.
