An Alcaraz – Djokovic summit at the round robin of the ATP Finals
The ATP Finals draw placed Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic in the same group, setting up a rematch of their quarter-final in Melbourne and semi-final in New York (with Fritz and De Minaur). In the other group, Jannik Sinner will meet several of his recent acquaintances from the Rolex Paris Masters.
Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, 2025 | © Chryslène Caillaud / Panoramic
While Novak Djokovic has confirmed his participation at the ATP Finals and Alexander Zverev, previously uncertain, was the first to arrive in Turin this week, all indicators suggest that the world’s top eight players will indeed compete in the tournament starting this Sunday.
The schedule has yet to be revealed, but Thursday’s draw produced the following groups:
Jimmy Connors Group
Carlos Alcaraz
Novak Djokovic
Taylor Fritz
Alex De Minaur
Björn Borg Group
Jannik Sinner
Alexander Zverev
Ben Shelton
Félix Auger-Aliassime or Lorenzo Musetti
On paper, the most eagerly anticipated match of the group phase will pit Alcaraz against Djokovic, with the world No. 1 ranking at stake for the Spaniard, who must win three matches at these ATP Finals to regain the throne (among several possible scenarios). If Djokovic has not managed to beat Sinner since the end of the ATP Finals two years ago, he maintains the ability to dominate the six-time Grand Slam winner, having deprived him of two Wimbledon titles in 2023 and 2024.
Alcaraz was soundly beaten by Djokovic in the semi-final of the 2023 ATP Finals, then lost again in the final of the 2024 Olympic Games and in the quarter-final of this year’s Australian Open, although the Spaniard overpowered Djokovic in the US Open semi-finals last September. A shadow of his former self at the Rolex Paris Masters, Alcaraz faces a tough group, with Fritz needing to defend points from his 2024 final and De Minaur aiming to make the most of his second appearance.
Sinner in familiar territory
In the other group, Jannik Sinner, the strong favourite—especially as he has remained unbeaten indoors since 2023—will again face opponents he recently beat to win his first Paris Masters title. These include Alexander Zverev, exhausted in their semi-final (6-0, 6-1), whom Sinner will face for the third time in three weeks, after their final in Vienna two weeks ago, which Sinner won 7-5 in the third set.
Also in the mix is Ben Shelton, making his ATP Finals debut after a quarter-final exit (6-3, 6-3), and Félix Auger-Aliassime, Paris finalist, who must rely on a defeat by Lorenzo Musetti to Sebastian Korda in Athens on Friday to retain his place in the top eight.
ROUND ROBIN rules
The main criteria for ranking players in the group stage of the ATP Finals is the number of match wins. If two players are tied in wins, the next criterion is the number of matches played: the one who played all his matches is favoured, especially if an opponent withdraws due to injury. If this still results in a tie, the winner of the direct encounter between those players is ranked ahead.
When three players are tied, the rules call for calculating the percentage of sets won by each; the player with the highest percentage is ranked first. If two players remain tied using this criterion, their head-to-head match decides the position. If there is still no distinction, the percentage of games won is applied to each player. Finally, if the deadlock persists, the ATP ranking at the time of the tournament is used as the last tie-breaker.
