Zverev cannot lose this on paper, which is exactly his problem
Alexander Zverev has beaten Ben Shelton five times out of five and 44 of his last 45 left-handers, leads the tour in wins and has reached every Grand Slam semifinal this year. He is also 1-7 against the top 10 in 2026 and has not met a top 20 player in this fortnight, which is why beating the world No. 9 in a US Open final would answer the only question still attached to his name.
Alexander Zverev, US Open 2026 | © Imago / PsNewz
Before the men’s singles US Open final, Alexander Zverev has beaten Ben Shelton five times out of five. He has won 44 of his last 45 matches against left-handers since Roland-Garros 2023, and 13 out of 13 against them at Grand Slam level.
The German leads the ATP Tour with 52 wins and 24 Grand Slam match wins, the most by a German in a season, passing Boris Becker’s 22 from 1989. He is the first German to reach the final of all four majors, the only man this year to reach the fourth round, quarterfinals and semifinals of all four, and one of nine in the Open era to make all four semifinals in a season.
On paper, the US Open has a huge favorite and a clear outsider. The paper is the problem.
The only line on his record that matters
On paper, the US Open has a huge favorite and a clear outsider. The paper is the problem. The same sheet that has Zverev 5-0 against Shelton and 44-1 against left-handers also has him 1-7 against the top 10 this season, and 6-20 against them at Grand Slam level.
He has not played a single top 20 player in this fortnight. Lorenzo Sonego, Quentin Halys, the No. 25 seed Alejandro Tabilo, the No. 21 seed Luciano Darderi, Botic van de Zandschulp at No. 70 and Karen Khachanov at No. 50. Since 1973, only one other man has reached multiple Grand Slam finals in a season without facing a top 20 opponent on the way: Roger Federer, at Roland-Garros and Wimbledon in 2008.
Shelton is world No. 9. Beating him would be Zverev’s second top 10 win of the year, his second at a Grand Slam since 2023, and the answer to the only question anyone still asks about him. Winning a second major without it would leave the question intact.
What Shelton has already crossed off
The American arrives having spent a fortnight doing to other people what Zverev has done to him. He came into the tournament having lost all 17 of his matches against top 3 opponents, with one set won in all of them, and he recited the rest of the list himself.
“I was 0-1 against Stef, 0-3 against Carlos, Foe beat me the last time we played on this court,” he said after the semifinal. “It’s been a lot of uphill battle, so I think that I’m fully ready for the challenge to problem-solve.”
Stefanos Tsitsipas went in straight sets. Carlos Alcaraz went in five at the latest finish in the tournament’s history, making Shelton the second man in the Open era after Manuel Orantes in 1975 to beat both of the top two seeds on the way to this title. Frances Tiafoe went in four. One name is left.
“I feel that I’m a different player,” Shelton said. “I feel like I have so many more tools. I feel like I know my identity, am comfortable in my own skin. I’m also the most confident I’ve ever been in my game.”
Tiafoe, who has played both men this season, gave him the instruction afterwards. “Take the head-to-head out of it and actually believe he can win the tennis match. He’s got to be good for a couple of hours, maybe plus, and see what happens.”
Zverev’s and Shelton’s long route
They have spent almost identical time on court, 19 hours 38 minutes for Zverev and 18 hours 58 for Shelton, and Zverev’s total is the fourth longest on record en route to a Grand Slam final. The German has served 87 aces to 71 and 36 double faults to 22, and has the bigger average first serve at 211 kph to 195. Shelton has the faster one, at 240 kph. Zverev has held 92% of his service games to Shelton’s 88%; Shelton has converted 45% of his break points to Zverev’s 33%.
In rallies of nine shots or more they are level, 50% to 49%.
Both are coached by their fathers, Alexander Zverev Sr and Bryan Shelton, and both fathers have spent the week talking about patience. Bryan Shelton’s rule for his son after the Alcaraz win was five words: “Don’t celebrate until you separate.”
The stadium, and 8,407 days
Shelton is playing to end the longest drought in American men’s Grand Slam history, 8,407 days since Andy Roddick won here on 7 September 2003, a month before Shelton’s first birthday. He would be the eighth different American man to win this title in the Open era and the first left-handed champion since Rafael Nadal in 2019.
He has already asked for the room. “I’ma need you guys on Sunday to bring the energy. We’re going for it here. I’ma leave it all on the court. Let’s do this for the USA.”
Zverev had said his part a few hours earlier, before the other semifinal was played. “I think it’s gonna be incredibly special. They’re the crowd favorites here in New York, everybody loves them.” And then: “Hopefully I can not make the American dream come true on Sunday.”
He has been here once, in 2020, in an empty stadium, and led Dominic Thiem by two sets before losing, becoming the only man in history to win a Grand Slam semifinal from two sets down and then lose the final from two sets up. He says that scar closed in June. “It did until I won in Paris. There was question marks, there was doubts whether I was ever going to win one. Now that I’ve won one, it’s okay.”
A win would make him the fourth man in the Open era to take his first two Grand Slam titles in the same season, after Jimmy Connors in 1974, Guillermo Vilas in 1977, Jannik Sinner in 2024, and the second German US Open champion after Becker in 1989.
