From Azarenka-Ostapenko to Anisimova-Sabalenka, match-ups are most crucial factor
Form and fitness can be thrown out of the window when there’s a one-sided head to head record between two players
Victoria Azarenka, Australian Open 2023 (AI / Reuters / Panoramic)
On paper, Victoria Azarenka’s victory over Jelena Ostapenko at the Australian Open on Saturday will go down as a surprise, the No 18 seed beating the No 11.
In reality, it’s the perfect example of why match-ups, and not rankings or form – past of present – matter most in tennis.
Tennis is a sport that demands enormous mental strength. Players are out there on their own, fighting their inner demons, as well as their opponents, coping with weather, form, pressure, expectations.
But when they find themselves up against an opponent whom they have a one-sided record against, be it positive or negative, all that goes out of the window and the head-to-head battle and the mind games take over.
Just look at Novak Djokovic against Gael Monfils. There’s no question that the Frenchman’s talent is enough to get a win against the Serb but he’s 19-0 on the wrong side. Roger Federer was 17-0 against both David Ferrer and Mikhail Youzhny; Serena Williams was 20-2 against Maria Sharapova.
Ostapenko the one with the problem
Ostapenko’s 2024 record reads 9-2 but both of her losses came against Azarenka. Something about the game-style, the personalities, works in the Belarusian’s favour, it seems. She’s now 4-0 against the former French Open champion, not that she was giving too much away in her post-match interview.
“Honestly I don’t really like to play against her,” she said. “It’s not like I was looking forward to it. She’s a great player. Before this match, all of our matches were very, very close.
“I think I’m just going to give whatever it takes, stay out here as long as possible. I think I love the challenge, whenever something is difficult.”
Maybe that’s what it is. Maybe it’s Ostapenko who has the problem. The Latvian didn’t do a press conference after the match – sometimes players are not requested, even when they’re former champions – but while Ostapenko sometimes winds her opponents up with her on-court antics, Azarenka seems unaffected.
”It’s actually interesting because I feel like it doesn’t necessarily always affect her,” Azarenka said. “When she’s winning, she’s like this; when she’s losing, she’s kind of like this. I think it’s just how she deals with herself on the court.
“I can’t speak for how she feels and why she does it. I don’t know. Some of the line callings, I mean, it can be a bit comical. I’m like, Whatever.
“I just think that’s how she is. I don’t necessarily judge. I’m just there to play a match. If I can, let’s say, destabilise her, that’s part of my job, it’s what’s going to make me play better and that’s what’s going to make me win. I’m not saying destabilising intentionally or something like that. If she’s doing what she’s doing, I need to worry about what I do.”
Anisimova leads Sabalenka 4-1 in head to heads
Aryna Sabalenka has been in amazing form at this year’s Australian Open so far, playing just as well as she did here last year when she won her first Australian Open title.
But the Belarusian has a bit of a problem in the next round because she’s playing Amanda Anisimova, the American on the comeback trail after taking seven months off last year to take care of her mental health.
On paper, Sabalenka is a big favourite, but again, the head to head is not in her favour, which could spell trouble. Anisimova, a pure ball-striker and former Grand Slam semi-finalist, leads their head to heads 4-1. Sabalenka did win the most recent one, in three sets in Rome in 2022, but Anisimova owns two wins in slams.
The case could be made to say that Sabalenka is a different player now, no longer prone to breaking down in matches and hitting streams of errors. But even if she does not have a mental block, Anisimova will surely go into their match with a lot more confidence than she might against, say, other members of the top five.
Far from being overawed at the prospect of playing the defending champion, Anisimova sounds excited.
“She’s an amazing competitor,” she said of the Belarusian. “She’s had a great year. I know she’s going to be coming in hot, playing well. So I’m expecting a really good match.
“We’re both very big hitters, so it always ends up being an enjoyable match to watch and also for us to play I think. I’m just really looking forward to it. I think it will be a good experience.”
