US Open 2026 women’s draw: Sabalenka’s three-peat bid, brutal bottom half
The US Open 2026 women’s draw is set. Aryna Sabalenka chases a third straight title, but faces a tough path. The bottom half is brutal, featuring Swiatek, Rybakina, and Gauff. Rising star Alexandra Eala eyes a deep run. Who will emerge from this challenging draw?
Iga Swiatek, Cincinnati 2026 | © Jeff Dean /Wick Photography for Cincinnati Open
Aryna Sabalenka is the top seed and, on paper, the favourite at the 2026 US Open, where she’s chasing a third straight title. Her half of the draw is manageable but far from empty: her projected quarterfinal is a tricky test against Karolína Muchová (No. 7), and her likely semifinal a heavyweight clash with Jessica Pegula (No. 3), the 2024 finalist.
Even so, of the two halves, Sabalenka’s is clearly the smoother road to the final.
The draw
The bottom half is where it gets brutal – and the flashpoint is Iga Swiatek. Seeded only No. 8 after a patchier run, the former world No. 1 and Toronto winner has been dumped into arguably the toughest quarter in the draw. Her projected round of 16 is a genuine trap against Belinda Bencic (No. 12), and if she clears that she runs straight into the section’s headline act: a quarterfinal against Elena Rybakina (No. 2) or Naomi Osaka (No. 13), who are drawn to collide in the other round-of-16 of that quarter.
Swiatek–Rybakina at the last eight would be the tie of the tournament – and there’s unfinished business between them: their most recent meeting, in Cincinnati, ended prematurely when Rybakina retired hurt early in the first set. Swiatek, for her part, still has to earn the rematch the hard way just to get there.
Eala – Jovic, third round ?
The other bottom-half quarter is scarcely softer, pairing Coco Gauff (No. 4) with Mirra Andreeva (No. 5), Madison Keys (No. 22), Daria Kasatkina and Paula Badosa all in the mix.
The story to circle, though, is Alexandra Eala. The seeded Filipina (No. 17) sits in Gauff’s quarter and has a live path to a breakout fortnight. Her likely third round is a “young guns” showdown against Iva Jovic (No. 14) – two of the game’s brightest teenagers meeting with a place in the second week on the line.
Win that, and a round-of-16 date with Gauff (No. 4) beckons, with Andreeva looming beyond in the quarters. It’s a demanding but tantalising route for one of the tour’s most exciting risers.
Elsewhere, Ukraine’s Elina Svitolina (No. 9) and Australian teenager-slayer Maya Joint headline a competitive Pegula quarter, while Wimbledon 2026 champion Linda Nosková (No. 6) is drawn to challenge Sabalenka in the quarters – a reminder that the top seed’s half has teeth of its own.
The projected semifinals shape up as Sabalenka vs Pegula (top half) and Gauff vs Rybakina/Swiatek (bottom), while Sabalenka bids to become the first woman since Serena Williams (2012–14) to win three in a row in New York.
