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Race for ATP No 1 heats up again as Nadal arrives in Cincinnati

The No 1 ranking could go back to Rafael Nadal after Cincinnati. Here’s a look at a complex set of scenarios for next week.

Nadal 2022 Rafael Nadal rests during a tennis match || Chryslène Caillaud / Panoramic

Nick Kyrgios’ victory over Daniil Medvedev at Montreal has opened up a can of worms when it comes to the ATP’s No 1 ranking.

On Monday, Medvedev will post 6885 points; Nadal, 5620. That means the Spaniard is within striking distance of the top spot, but he’ll need to earn his second title in Cincinnati to get there.

In Ohio, Medvedev will have a semi-final to defend, or 360 points. Nadal, who will play the tournament for the first time since 2017 has no points to defend. To regain the throne, he will have to lift the trophy, hoping that Medvederv will be eliminated before the quarter-finals.

Here is a look at the scenarios:

If Nadal wins in Cincinnati and Medvedev does not reach the quarter-finals there:

No 1 – Nadal, 6620 points
No 2 – Medvedev, 6,615 points (if lost in Round of 16)

There will also be a race to No 2 in Cincinnati

Currently in the recovery phase after his ankle injury in the semi-finals of Roland-Garros, Alexander Zverev will have a hard time keeping the No 2 ranking. And there are many candidates that could finish the tournament and head to the US Open with the No 2 ranking.

Here’s a look at the scenarios…

Zverev remains world number 2:

  • If Nadal doesn’t reach the final in Cincinnati, Alcaraz doesn’t win Cincinnati, and Ruud doesn’t make the final and title in Cincinnati and Montreal (any order)

Medvedev world number 2:

  • If he doesn’t reach the quarter-finals in Cincinnati and Nadal wins the tournament

Nadal world number 2:

  • If he wins Cincinnati and Medvedev goes at least to the quarter-finals
  • If he plays the final in Cincinnati and Ruud does not complete the Montreal-Cincinnati double
  • If he loses in the semi-finals in Cincinnati, Alcaraz does not win Cincinnati and Ruud does not make the Montreal-Cincinnati double
  • If he loses in the quarterfinals in Cincinnati, Alcaraz does not win Cincinnati and Ruud does not take the title in Montreal or Cincinnati (and reach the final of the other)

Alcaraz world number 2:

  • If he wins Cincinnati and Nadal doesn’t reach the semis there

Ruud world number 2:

  • If he wins Montreal and Cincinnati
  • If he wins the title in Montreal or Cincinnati (and reach the final of the other), Nadal does not reach the semi-finals in Cincinnati and Alcaraz does not win the tournament there
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