Top 10 reshuffle looms as Monte-Carlo Masters quarter-finals set

Rublev could fall as far as No 8 in the world, while Tsitsipas has a chance to re-enter the top 10

Holger Rune at the 2024 Monte-Carlo Masters Antoine Couvercelle/Panoramic

After six days of action in Monte-Carlo, just eight men remain in contention for glory. The final three days of the Masters 1000 event promise to deliver some interesting permutations in the ATP rankings.

With defending champion Andrey Rublev losing early, and the likes of Holger Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas finding form at the right time, the men’s top 10 could be in for a major reshuffle after the first clay Masters tournament of the year.

Several players need to win if they’re to remain in the top 10, others may see themselves re-enter the sport’s upper echelon, while a new world No 2 is on the cards as well.

In fact, only three of the world’s top 10 – Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev – are secure in their current ranking positions. 

Rublev could fall to No 8 in the world

It’s been a challenging past two months for Rublev. After rising to a career-high of No 5 in the world off the back of a strong finish to 2023, the Russian is now staring down the barrel of a significant drop in his ranking this week.

Rublev won Monte-Carlo this time last year in a thrilling finale against Rune, but was ousted during the first round of the tournament in 2024 at the hands of Australia’s Alexei Popyrin. The result was a net loss of 955 ranking points, which puts Rublev’s total ATP points at 3,935 come Monday.

Currently sitting at No 6 in the world, several players in Monte-Carlo have the ability to move ahead of Rublev. 

Both Casper Ruud and Alex de Minaur are in the quarter-finals in the top half of the draw. If each wins their next match, they’ll meet in the semi-finals and the winner will move ahead of Rublev in the rankings. With Novak Djokovic and Ugo Humbert awaiting De Minaur and Ruud respectively in the quarter-finals, making the semi-finals is no easy task, mind you.

Rune and Tsitsipas are also chances to surpass Rublev in the rankings. However, each would need to win the title–another challenging prospect, with Jannik Sinner looming in the lower half of the draw.

Sinner and Rune play for world No 2, top 10 spot

Speaking of Rune and Sinner, the pair meet in the quarter-finals this Friday. Rune leads the head-to-head 2-1, though Sinner is in brilliant form this year having only lost once.

Plenty is on the line for both in this match. For Sinner, if he loses, he’ll forego the No 2 spot in the ATP rankings to Carlos Alcaraz. Despite Alcaraz withdrawing from Monte-Carlo, as a defending semi-finalist, Sinner will drop 150 points if he loses in the quarter-finals this year, which is enough for Alcaraz to bunny-hop him.

If Rune loses, he’ll drop ranking points and fall out of the top 10 for the first time over a year. The 20-year-old is defending 650 ranking points in Monte-Carlo, courtesy of his run to the final in 2023.

Tsitsipas eyes top 10, Dimitrov, Ruud, De Minaur vulnerable

Other players vulnerable to falling out of the top 10 are Grigor Dimitrov, as well as Ruud and De Minaur. Dimitrov has already lost in the round of 16 to Holger Rune, and sits on 3,595 ranking points – currently No 8 in the live rankings.

However, both Ruud and De Minaur can pass him with deep runs this weekend, while the winner of Rune and Tsitsipas could also go ahead of the Bulgarian, should they make the semi-finals. This would push Dimitrov down to No 11 in the world.

Tsitsipas will be eyeing his opportunity to return to the world’s top 10 after falling out of the elite group in February of this year. The Greek will need to at least make the final to move into the top 10. If results go his way, a title in Monte-Carlo could propel Tsitsipas as high as No 6 in the world again. 

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