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How ATP’s no-points for Wimbledon severely impacts Djokovic’s chances to remain No 1 after Wimbledon 2022 ; for the benefit of Medvedev

The ATP’s decision to not allot any ranking points for Wimbledon 2022 could have a significant impact on on the top of the world rankings in the coming weeks

Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic, 2021, paris Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic, 2021, Rolex Paris Masters © Aurélien Morrissard / Panoramic

Novak Djokovic will face a significant loss in his ranking tally after the ATP Tour decided to strip Wimbledon off ranking points over the All England Lawn Tennis Club (AELTC) and the Lawn Tennis Association (LTA)’s decision to ban Russian and Belarusian players from this year’s event.

On Friday, the ATP Tour, WTA Tour and ITF Tour issued a statement saying that no points will be awarded for this year’s Wimbledon Championships over the AELTC and LTA’s decision.

The Tours have also decided that the points players earned from Wimbledon 2021 will drop off without a chance to defend them, meaning Djokovic will drop 2,000 ranking points which he earned for winning Wimbledon in 2021.

Medvedev reached the fourth round at Wimbledon in 2021, meaning he will lose 180 points unless there is a change in Wimbledon’s stance.

As it stands today, the points for the top two players stands as:

  • Djokovic: 8,660 points
  • Medvedev: 7,980 points

If we remove the points from the 2021 Wimbledon tournament, which will drop off on July 11, the points for them stand as:

  • Djokovic: 6,660 points
  • Medvedev: 7,800 points

Unless there is a U-turn by Wimbledon or an improbable series of events, it seems almost certain that Medvedev will return to the world No 1 spot even if he does not play at the All England Club.

Djokovic cannot increase his ranking tally during Roland-Garros

Djokovic heads into Roland-Garros as the defending champion, which means he has the maximum of 2,000 ranking points in his kitty from winning in Paris last year. So, the only way he can make increase the gap over Medvedev at the end of the French Open is to hope that Medvedev loses early in Paris.

The Russian, who missed all the three clay court Masters Series events and only returned in Geneva this week where he lost in the first round, reached the quarter-finals in Paris last year, which earned him 360 points.

As long as Medvedev takes to the court for his first round match in Paris, he will be assured of 10 points. Assuming Djokovic goes on to win in Paris again this year (best case for the Serb) and Medvedev loses in the first round (worst case for the Russian), their points at the end of Roland-Garros (including 2021 Wimbledon points) would be:

  • Djokovic: 8,660 (winning Roland-Garros)
  • Medvedev: 7,630 (losing 1R Roland-Garros)

Assuming Djokovic wins Roland-Garros again and Medvedev achieves the next best possible result, which is a finalist position, the Russian would earn 1,200 points, which would be enough for Medvedev to leave Paris as the world No 1:

  • Djokovic: 8,660 (winning Roland-Garros)
  • Medvedev: 8,820 (runner-up at Roland-Garros)

Of course, there are several other permutations and combinations possible between the best case scenario for Djokovic and the worst-case for Medvedev, which would have an impact on their points.

Here is a look at the points for both players for reaching the different stages of the tournament, which shows that Djokovic needs to reach the final to have a chance of remaining No 1 after Paris.

  • First round: Djokovic 6,670, Medvedev 7,630
  • Second round: Djokovic 6,715, Medvedev 7,665
  • Third round: Djokovic 6,750, Medvedev 7,710
  • Fourth round: Djokovic 6,840, Medvedev 7,800
  • Quarter-final: Djokovic 7,020, Medevdev 7,980
  • Semi-final: Djokovic 7,380, Medvedev 8,340
  • Runner-up: Djokovic 7,860, Medvedev 8,820
  • Winner: Djokovic 8,660 , Medvedev 9,620

In other words, Djokovic is sure to lose his first place if he doesn’t reach the final and Medvedev is sure to be back at the first spot after Roland-Garros if he reaches the final.

Serbia's Novak Djokovic celebrates winning his quarter final match against Canada's Felix Auger Aliassime at the Italian Open in Rome
Serbia’s Novak Djokovic celebrates winning his quarter final match against Canada’s Felix Auger Aliassime at the Italian Open in Rome Image Credit: AI / Reuters / Panoramic

What happens during the three-week break between Roland-Garros and Wimbledon?

While there won’t be any ranking points on offer at Wimbledon, the ATP Tour has decided to retain ranking points for the tune-up events in the United Kingdom during the three-week period between Roland-Garros and Wimbledon. That’s based on the logic that Russian and Belarusian players have opportunities to earn ranking points in grass events in other countries such as Germany, Spain and Netherlands during those same weeks.

In 2021, Medvedev earned 250 points for winning in Mallorca while Djokovic did not play any warm-up events between the two Grand Slams.

Daniil Medvedev hits a shot in his 2nd round match at the BNP Paribas open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.
Daniil Medvedev hits a shot in his 2nd round match at the BNP Paribas open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. Image Credit: AI / Reuters / Panoramic

Let’s assume Djokovic wins Roland-Garros while Medvedev loses first round Paris and does not play any warm-up events on grass. That means he drops 250 points from his Mallorca title and the points tally would be:

  • Djokovic: 8,660 (winning Roland-Garros)
  • Medvedev: 7,380 (losing 1R in Paris and no points earned on grass)

And if we consider that Djokovic would beat Medvedev to win Paris but the Russian would lose his first matches at the grass court tune-ups he plays, their points would look like this:

  • Djokovic: 8,660 (winning Roland-Garros)
  • Medvedev: 8,570 (losing in RG final and no points on grass)

Medvedev has said that he intends to play in all three weeks of the grass court warm-up events while there is no word on whether Djokovic plans to play any of the tune-up events. His official website lists Wimbledon as his next tournament after Roland-Garros.

With a maximum possible 1,000 ranking points available for Medvedev or Djokovic (who shall not have this program, he only played a double competition last year) to pick up during that three-week span (250 for ‘s-Hertogenbosch/ Stuttgart, 500 for Halle/ Queens and 250 for Mallorca/ Eastbourne if they win the trophy), that may not be sufficient for the Serb to make up for the 2,000 points he will be losing at Wimbledon.

  • Djokovic with title in Paris + no points in grass court tune up events -2021 Wimbledon points = 6,660
  • Medvedev with a first-round loss in Paris + no points in grass court tune up events -2021 Wimbledon points = 7,200

Like Medvedev, Djokovic could choose to play one or more tournaments on grass before Wimbledon which would add to his tally, but with all things considered, it’s looking quite tough for the Serb to hold on to the No 1 spot once the Wimbledon points drop off on July 11.

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