If Gauff makes 60% or more first serves against Sabalenka in Roland-Garros final, she wins (probably)
The American has won all four of their previous matches when finding the court with at least three in every five first serves
Michtof / PsnewZ
Statistics don’t win tennis matches, of course but as world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka and world No 2 Coco Gauff prepare to meet for an 11th time in the final at Roland-Garros on Saturday, there is one stat from their previous matches that stands out.
If Coco Gauff lands 60 percent or more of her first serves, she wins. That’s going on their previous matches, at least. On the four occasions she’s managed that; at the WTA Finals in 2024, in the US Open final in 2023, in Toronto in 2022 and Rome (their only meeting on clay) in 2021, Gauff has come out on top.
The good news for Gauff is that she has been averaging 60 percent first serves in throughout this year’s event, which is not bad considering she’s hit 33 double faults and that her serve remains a work in progress.
The bad news for the American is that her first serve percentage has been dipping as the tournament has progressed. Having made 60 percent, 70 percent and 61 percent in her first three matches respectively, Gauff has dipped to 59, 55 and in her semi-final against Lois Boisson, 57.
Sabalenka, by contrast, has been averaging 64 percent first serves in, dipping below 60 percent just twice, in the second round and then in the semi-finals, against Iga Swiatek. However, a lot of it depends on timing; in the second set, she dipped below 50 percent as the Pole levelled the match, but in the third set she was up at 80 percent and totally unstoppable.
Gauff has edge on return games
Even if Gauff drops the odd service game, and given the quality of the Sabalenka return, she probably will, she will be confident of breaking the Belarusian.
At this year’s Roland-Garros, Gauff is tied second for percentage of points won, at 49 percent, while on second serve she is winning a whopping 73 percent of points, fourth overall with the three women above her having played only one match each.
Sabalenka, in comparison, has been doing well, but not quite as well. Against the first serve, she is winning 44 percent, while against the second, it’s 62 percent.
Both have won one Grand Slam final against each other, both have made clay-court finals this year and they are tied 1-1 on clay, Gauff winning in Rome in 2021 and Sabalenka triumphing this year in Madrid. Something has got to give, but if the American is consistent on serve, statistically at least, she has a great chance to win a second Grand Slam title.
